Mark Herz: This is GBH’s Morning Edition. Well, the election results are in: Donald Trump will return to the White House in January. And here in Massachusetts, there were five ballot questions that voters weighed in on yesterday, including the vote to authorize removing the MCAS as a graduation requirement. And here with me to go over all that and more, GBH politics reporter Adam Reilly and UMass Boston political science professor Erin O’Brien. Welcome to you both.
Prof. Erin O’Brien: Good morning.
Adam Reilly: Good morning, Mark.
Herz: Thanks for having us. You know, joining us here in the morning in the aftermath of all this, how did Trump do in Massachusetts? Let’s start there, especially compared to the last two times that he was on the ballot, just looking at this state.
Reilly: The numbers that I’m seeing suggest that he did a little bit better than in previous elections, but not by an enormous margin. Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by 34 points here in 2020, a huge margin of victory. Hillary Clinton’s margin of victory was narrower. She beat him by 27 points. And based on the returns that I’m seeing right now, Harris won the state by 26 points. So a tiny bit weaker than Clinton when it comes to her performance, but not that much.
O’Brien: Mark, I’ll add on to that. It’s a little hard to tell because we’ve got 87% reporting here. And when you look at some of the data — Adam and I were having a fun data sort of nerd-out when we got started here. There is evidence that almost every town did shift slightly towards Trump. So while it might not be a huge aggregate change, the initial cuts at the data are that almost every town in Massachusetts shifted slightly towards Trump. But of course, the vast majority of towns in Massachusetts did not vote for Trump.
Herz: Yeah, that’s interesting. Thanks for that perspective, Erin. Guys, let’s switch the ballot questions now. I think as I previewed in my intro, I think one of the biggest ones that’s so interesting is no more MCAS, and that has support of legislative leaders. So that looks like that’s going to go right through. That’s a big change here, especially for a state like Massachusetts. Adam, why don’t you start, what’s your perspective on that?
Reilly: Legislative leaders are actually opposed to getting rid of MCAS. It’s important that we stress this. They don’t like this idea. Yeah, they’re on the record saying that they’re not fans of this plan. So is Governor Healey. There was polling that indicated that people were more likely to support getting rid of the MCAS if they had kids in K through 12 public schools in Massachusetts. So you’ve got on the one hand, it seems parents and others who don’t like the test and the way it shapes their kids lives, and then legislative leaders who strongly believe it should stay in place. So the question now, I think, is whether we’re going to see a push on the part of the legislature to simply repeal this new law, which they’ve done in the past. Back in 2003, they repealed the so-called clean elections law that would have created publicly financed elections with spending caps. That passed by a 2-to-1 margin. It was very popular. The legislature didn’t like it and they got rid of it. So keep your eyes out for something similar happening here. It’ll be interesting to see how the legislature handles it, because if they do move to repeal it, there will be pushback.
Herz: Yeah. Thanks. Thanks for that. And Erin, to you, I am so interested in this: Question 1 state auditor Diana DiZoglio, you know, she won this what I would call a personally tinged crusade to audit the legislature. Now, that sounds kind of process-y, I think, to an everyday person. Now, does it matter?
O’Brien: It does matter. And it actually relates to the question we were just talking about on issue two. Residents of Massachusetts don’t like the state legislature. They think it’s inefficient, they think it’s slow and they think it isn’t transparent. And so as a political scientist, yes, there are some real questions about separation of powers with this ballot issue. But in the weeds, sure. But as a quick frame, do you want to audit the legislature? Heck yeah. As one resident of the commonwealth said. And the legislature, I think they’re not going to reverse the will of the people on two issues. So I think what they’ll do is they’ll accept the will of the voters MCAS, and they’re much more likely — because it’s inside baseball, it directly affects them — if they’re going to overturn anything, I think it will be issue one. Voters won’t like it, but the legislature, you know, they don’t fear not getting reelected in Massachusetts.
Reilly: And I agree with Erin that if it’s one or the other, it’s going to be one. And they may do it in court rather than legislatively.
O’Brien: Right. MCAS, you know, kids, they’re not going to go against that. Issue one is their jobs and how they do their jobs. And the single best predictor of behavior of elected officials is electoral self-interest.
Herz: Right. Right. Well, you know, speaking of elected officials, let’s get the perspective back to the presidential election. What now for an all-Democrat delegation? Adam, let’s start with the House. What the perspective there?
Reilly: Well, it certainly looks like the House is going to be Republican-controlled. In the House and the Senate, our all-Democratic congressional delegation is going to be voices in the wilderness. It’s going to be a rough few years for them. It’s going to be very hard for them to get stuff done. Not that bipartisan collaboration’s impossible or has not been impossible. I mean, Elizabeth Warren actually worked with J.D. Vance on banking issues and drew interest for doing that. But I don’t think there’s going to be a huge appetite on the part of the Republicans for bipartisan cooperation in the next couple of years. So it’s tough time that our delegation is heading into.
Herz: Yeah. Yeah. And I you know, I kind of feel like looking back to the last Trump administration, I think there was a feeling for some people that Massachusetts was a bit of a blue bubble, that, you know, for people who opposed some of his policies that they felt like they were somewhat protected from them perhaps being in Massachusetts here. Erin, what do you think? Is that in the zeitgeist? Was it and will it be again?
O’Brien: I think you’re correct that that was the feeling. I think that feeling should pass. President Trump, or soon-to-be President Trump, has been very clear he’s not going to put traditional Republicans in. He’s going to put Trump loyalists, individuals that will do his bidding. And I actually think Maura Healey enjoys that kind of fight better. You know, progressives don’t think she’s done enough. And her stance on MCAS has been unpopular amongst many Democrats. Maura Healey as AG relished the fight with Donald Trump. And so I think our congressional delegation and our governor are ready to fight and in some ways know what to do when there’s an opponent better. But I think federalism is real and Massachusetts does have protective layers. But to overuse the metaphor, the bubble is getting thinner when President Trump will have the apparatus of the federal government and a Supreme Court that has wildly empowered him while he is in that role.
Reilly: Just jump in really quickly,
Herz: Yeah, very quickly.
Reilly: The president makes good on his promise to deport 10 million-plus migrants who are here illegally. There’s not going to be much of a bubble in that case.
Herz: Okay. GBH’s Adam Reilly, UMass Boston’s Erin O’Brien. Thank you both. You’re listening to GBH.
The election results are in: Donald Trump will return to the White House in January. And here in Massachusetts, there were five ballot questions that voters weighed in on yesterday, including the vote to authorize removing the MCAS test as a high school graduation requirement.
GBH politics reporter Adam Reilly and UMass Boston political science professor Erin O’Brien joined GBH’s Morning Edition host Mark Herz to talk about some things they are considering this morning.
Massachusetts voted overwhelmingly for Harris — but shifted to the right
Vice President Kamala Harris won Massachusetts with 62% of the vote to Trump’s 36%. That’s a decisive win, but not as strong as a performance as Democrats saw in 2020.
“Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by 34 points here in 2020, a huge margin of victory,” Reilly said. “Hillary Clinton’s margin of victory was narrower. She beat him by 27 points. And based on the returns that I’m seeing right now, Harris won the state by 26 points. So a tiny bit weaker than Clinton when it comes to her performance, but not that much.”
Looking at preliminary data, O’Brien noted that almost every city and town in the state saw a higher share of people voting for Trump than they did four years ago.
“While it might not be a huge aggregate change, the initial cuts at the data are that almost every town in Massachusetts shifted slightly towards Trump,” O’Brien said. “But of course, the vast majority of towns in Massachusetts did not vote for Trump.”
The all-Democratic Mass. Congressional delegation heads back to a redder Washington
With Trump in the White House and Republicans gaining control of the Senate — and the House too close to call on Wednesday — the all-Democratic delegation of Massachusetts senators and representatives will have new challenges.
“It certainly looks like the House is going to be Republican-controlled. In the House and the Senate, our all-Democratic congressional delegation is going to be voices in the wilderness,” Reilly said.
That means it may be harder for them to pass legislation, he said.
“Not that bipartisan collaboration’s impossible or has not been impossible. I mean, Elizabeth Warren actually worked with JD Vance on banking issues and drew interest for doing that,” Reilly said. “But I don’t think there’s going to be a huge appetite on the part of the Republicans for bipartisan cooperation in the next couple of years.”
How will Massachusetts leaders deal with a second Trump term?
O’Brien said any feeling among Massachusetts residents that they will be completely insulated from federal policy during Trump’s second term “should pass.”
“Soon-to-be President Trump has been very clear he’s not going to put traditional Republicans in. He’s going to put Trump loyalists, individuals that will do his bidding,” O’Brien said. “But I think federalism is real. Massachusetts does have protective layers. But to overuse the metaphor, the bubble is getting thinner when President Trump will have the apparatus of the federal government and a Supreme Court that has wildly empowered him while he is in that role.”
Massachusetts leaders may have little recourse on immigration policy and Trump’s campaign promises of mass deportations, Reilly said.
“If, for example, the president makes good on his promise to deport 10 million-plus migrants who are here illegally, there’s not going to be much of a bubble in that case,” Reilly said.
Gov. Maura Healey may seize on opportunities to go against Trump’s administration, as she did during his first term when she was the state’s attorney general, O’Brien said.
“I actually think Maura Healey enjoys that kind of fight better,” O’Brien said. “Maura Healey as AG relished the fight with Donald Trump. And so I think our congressional delegation and our governor are ready to fight and in some ways know what to do when there’s an opponent better.”
Ballot questions voters approved now could face legislative pushback
More than half of Massachusetts voters approved of two ballot questions: Question 1, gives the state auditor’s office the power to audit the state Legislature; and Question 2, which asked if the state should remove the 10th grade MCAS test as a high school graduation requirement.
Question 3, asking whether rideshare drivers should be allowed to form a union, was also approved, with the Associated Press calling that race shortly after noon Wednesday.
Ballot measures regarding legalizing natural psychedelics and raising the amount employers must pay tipped workers to $15 failed at the ballot boxes.
Beacon Hill legislators are on record opposing both Question 1 and Question 2, Reilly said.
“So the question now, I think, is whether we’re going to see a push on the part of the legislature to simply repeal this new law, which they’ve done in the past,” Reilly said. “Back in 2003, they repealed the so-called clean elections law that would have created publicly financed elections with spending caps. That passed by a 2-to-1 margin. It was very popular. The legislature didn’t like it and they got rid of it.”
O’Brien said she believes the Legislature is more likely to adopt the MCAS measure and challenge the state auditor’s legislation.
“Residents of Massachusetts don’t like the state Legislature. They think it’s inefficient, they think it’s slow and they think it isn’t transparent,” O’Brien said.
During the campaign opponents brought up potential concerns over separation of powers with Question 1, arguing that an audit of the Legislature would concentrate more power in the executive branch at the legislative branch’s expense. That legal argument may make its way to court, O’Brien said.
“I think what they’ll do is they’ll accept the will of the voters MCAS, and they’re much more likely — because it’s inside baseball, it directly affects them — if they’re going to overturn anything, I think it will be Issue 1,” O’Brien said. “Voters won’t like it, but the Legislature, you know, they don’t fear not getting reelected in Massachusetts.”