A new report from the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) shows that Jill Stein, the Lexington, Massachusetts, resident and Green Party candidate for president, is leading Democratic nominee Kamala Harris among Muslim voters in several key swing states.
The analysis expands on a survey conducted late last month that showed Muslim voters nationally split between Harris and Stein, even thought 69% of the respondents said they usually vote for the Democratic Party. The new analysis dug deeper into the data, specifically looking at voters in swing states.
In Michigan, 40% of Muslim voters said they plan to vote for Stein, compared to just 12% who said they plan to vote for Harris. Stein also received significant support from Muslim voters in Wisconsin, where 44% said they plan to vote for her compared to 39% who said they’ll back Harris. And in Arizona, Stein draws support from 35% of Muslim voters, compared to 29% for Harris.
According to the website World Population Review, Michigan has a Muslim population of more than 241,000, meaning that Stein’s substantial lead there — if it holds — could have a decisive impact on who ultimately wins that state. The website FiveThirtyEight currently shows Harris leading Republican nominee Donald Trump in Michigan by 1.9%.
A similar dynamic applies in Arizona and Wisconsin, where World Population Review puts the Muslim population at about 110,000 and 68,000, respectively. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Trump a 0.5% lead in Arizona and Harris a 2.8% lead in Wisconsin.
“When you have a candidate like Stein being a third-party candidate in these states, she has the potential to disrupt all these elections,” said Robert McCaw, CAIR’s national government affairs director and one of the authors of the report. “And how all candidates appeal to Muslim voters will really determine who might be the next president of the United States.
”From a Muslim civil rights organization’s perspective, we’re really challenging Muslims to turn out to vote regardless of which candidate they [choose], knowing that they can have an impact on the election,“ McCaw added.
Stein previously ran for president in both 2012 and 2016, when she received about 1% of the vote nationally. While Stein’s total tally in 2016 was modest, an argument can be made that the votes she received in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that year ultimately helped Trump become president. Stein was also a candidate for governor of Massachusetts in 2002 and 2010, and for secretary of the commonwealth in 2006.
Stein’s 2024 platform calls, among other things, for an “immediate ceasefire in Israel and Palestine” and an immediate end to all U.S. military aid to Israel. She has also called for an independent investigation into “the legality of the billions for direct military aid” and suggested that prosecution by the International Criminal Court may be warranted.
In a statement provided to GBH News, Stein said: “We’re grateful for the strong support of Muslim voters who share with us the determination to end genocide in Gaza, and the injustice faced by our Muslim friends. We urge all people of conscience to resist the propaganda telling you to hold your nose and vote for genocide.
”If you vote for genocide, you are actively consenting to it and enabling it,“ Stein added. ”Don’t let them talk you out of your humanity. Stopping genocide is the moral imperative of our time.“
After President Joe Biden dropped his re-election bid, Harris made remarks that were interpreted by some as indicating that she is more pro-Palestinian than Biden. But others argue that on a substantive level, Harris has maintained Biden’s approach to the Israel-Hamas war. At the recent Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Harris asserted Israel’s fundamental right to defend itself during her acceptance speech, and pro-Palestinian activists who had hoped to secure a speaking slot have said they were rebuffed.
The Harris campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
According to CAIR’s analysis, Harris leads Stein among Muslim voters in other swing states, including Georgia (43% to 17%), Pennsylvania (37% to 25%), and Nevada (26% to 13%, with Trump at 27%). According to World Population Review, the Muslim population of those states is approximately 124,000, 150,000 and 7,000, respectively.
FiveThirtyEight currently shows Harris leading Georgia by 0.3%, Pennsylvania by 0.6% and Nevada by 0.5%.
During the Democratic presidential primaries, when Biden was the party’s presumptive nominee, activists opposed to the administration’s policy on the Israel-Hamas war urged voters to remain uncommitted in several states. In Michigan, more than 100,000 uncommitted votes were ultimately cast, and in Hawaii, “uncommitted” received 29% of the vote.
The new report also highlights some notable differences inside the national Muslim electorate. For example, while Harris enjoys a sizable lead over Stein among Black Muslim voters (55% to 11%), Stein fares better with white, Arab and Turkic Muslims (33% to 26%). The discrepancy is smaller among Asian Muslims, with 28% backing Harris and 26% backing Stein.
Support for the two candidates also varies by gender. Harris leads among Muslim men with 29% support, while Stein leads among Muslim women with 34% support.
