Jeremy Siegel: You're listening to GBH's Morning Edition. Things are heating up in New Hampshire as the first in the nation primary is now just five days away. Candidates are crisscrossing the state, getting in front of voters, and as it turns out, not making time for a debate tonight. Joining me now to discuss the latest is UMass Boston political science professor Erin O'Brien and POLITICO's Lisa Kashinsky. Good morning to both of you.

Erin O'Brien: Good morning.

Lisa Kashinsky: Good morning.

Siegel: So, Lisa, you are already set up in New Hampshire. What is the atmosphere building to the weekend, and what can we expect to see as Tuesday gets closer?

Kashinsky: Honestly, it's a little muted right now. Several of the candidates, of the remaining candidates, aren't even in the state today. Ron DeSantis has left. Trump is not here. Nikki Haley has had a relatively light campaign schedule so far that is picking up a little bit today. And then you have the two longshot Democrats who are campaigning here while Joe Biden isn't.

Siegel: So, Erin, this all comes as there are reports that say the race between former President Trump, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis is not totally set in stone, too close to call. What do you think at this point?

O'Brien: Well, you know, I go to the polling. And the polling has Donald Trump, the latest polling from the Globe, has Trump at 50, Haley at 36, and DeSantis pretty far behind. I mean, DeSantis put all his chips in Iowa and isn't a good match to the electorate. So I actually think it is, in New Hampshire, a two-person race.

Siegel: Lisa, you said that the excitement doesn't appear to be there at this point from the candidates. What about from voters that you've spoken to on the ground in New Hampshire?

Kashinsky: Voters are certainly excited. And in New Hampshire, of course, this is effectively a birthright to get to vet and pick the next presidential nominees. So voters are turning out, hundreds of people showing up to town halls and events and meet and greets for all the different candidates. Plenty of still-undecided voters, definitely leaning one way, but still open to being swayed even in this late stage.

Siegel: We're talking with Lisa Kashinsky of Politico and UMass Boston political science professor Erin O'Brien about the latest ahead of the New Hampshire primary. Erin, do you think that New Hampshire will decide the fates of Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, considering that they're polling behind Donald Trump?

O'Brien: Well, Jeremy, if they were rational politicians, yes. But rationality and politicians, you know, don't always go hand in hand. I think with Ron DeSantis, he's done. Whether he knows it or not, is a different thing. And New Hampshire is going to send that message. For Nikki Haley, it's a bit different because she's returning to her home state [of South Carolina] after New Hampshire, and by most accounts, she's a good match for the New Hampshire electorate. And so, you know, the theory of her campaign is that they win in New Hampshire, or do very, very close to Donald Trump, and then go to her home state. And, you know, many Republican politicians have been tricked into thinking, you know, the electorate will finally, I should say, the Republican electorate will finally wake up and they'll see that Donald Trump is not campaigning, to the point made earlier, in New Hampshire, as much as one might expect, because he's in court. And the emperor has no clothes is only obvious in retrospect. That's the theory of the campaign. But voters have a funny way of throwing theory out the window.

Siegel: Erin, who do you think are the voters who could shape the way this ends up turning out? I've seen in the Globe a new brief from the Carsey School of Public Policy at the University of New Hampshire shows that 22% of New Hampshire voters have never voted in that state before. What could that mean for the outcome here?

O'Brien: Well, and that's where New Hampshire is very interesting. It's an open primary, so independents can vote. And there's a lot of in-migration to New Hampshire along the Massachusetts border. So the electorate is different, both just ideologically and ironically, it's swing voters and independents that are going to make the difference in the general election in 2024. So the influx of those types of voters in the New Hampshire primary speaks to who Joe Biden and probably Donald Trump want to win over. Of course, New Hampshire is a very white electorate and unrepresentative in that facet. But the fact that swing voters, individuals who have voted for Democrats and Republicans, individuals who maybe sometimes stay home, that they can have influence on the New Hampshire electorate. Nikki Haley's right when she says she's a better general election candidate, she has less baggage from the perspective of trying to win over those voters, the mushy middle, if you will, that determine elections in swing states.

Siegel: Lisa, based off of your conversations on the ground and what you're seeing there, do you think that those voters in the middle could help swing things in one direction or another for Nikki Haley coming up next week?

Kashinsky: Oh, they absolutely could. I mean, everything that Erin said is right. Independents are poised to play such a big role in this primary. And polls show that Nikki Haley, especially with Chris Christie out of the race, is pulling a lot of support from those independents, those more centrist leaning folks and especially, of those folks, the ones who do not want Trump to be the nominee again. So she really stands to benefit from that and has already seen a trickle over, at the very least, of a lot of those supporters.

Siegel: Before I let you go, I'd like to get both of your takes quickly on the Democratic side of things, Lisa, you mentioned that there are a couple candidates that are going to be on the primary ballot. President Biden will not be one of them, because the Democratic Party has moved to put other states first in the nation. But there is a write-in campaign. What are you expecting to see on the Democratic side?

Kashinsky: That is kind of the very big question right now. Everyone on all sides in the Democrats, the write-in Biden folks as well as Dean Phillips, have been downgrading expectations. Every time you talk to them, it's a little bit lower of where they think it will be. They obviously just need to get the largest share of votes to claim some sort of victory, the write-in folks do. But it's really hard to tell right now.

Siegel: Erin, do you think that's going to happen, that President Biden will be a write-in victory in New Hampshire, despite deciding not to be on the ballot?

O'Brien: You know, it's hard to tell. On the one hand, as my new friend's reporting has pointed out, New Hampshire takes very seriously their role. It's sort of a dream from a political scientist perspective, that so many citizens are really engaged or going to town halls when it's freezing and things like that, but they also like to be courted. And the fact that they view themselves as being unfairly snubbed by the DNC and potentially Biden, it's not clear if Biden pays, but most Democrats really do not like Donald Trump. And that to me, I think will be the ultimate goal. And Biden will get a lot of write-ins.

Siegel: And that's Erin O'Brien, UMass Boston political science professor. Erin, thanks so much for your time.

O'Brien: Thank you.

Siegel: We are also joined by Lisa Kashinsky of POLITICO's Massachusetts Playbook. Lisa, thanks for coming on.

Kashinsky: Thanks for having me.

Siegel: And stay tuned. GBH will have coverage on Friday through the weekend and on Monday and Tuesday looking ahead to the New Hampshire primary. You're listening to GBH News.

With New Hampshire's primaries slated for Tuesday, President Joe Biden is not on the ballot because of changes in the Democratic National Committee calendar and former President Trump seems to have a lead on the Republican side. But more than one in five New Hampshire voters have never voted in the state before, including young people registering to vote for the first time, new residents and students. What does that mean for the election? Lisa Kashinsky of Politico and UMass Boston Political Science Professor Erin O'Brien joined Jeremy Siegel to discuss.

Here are four things to know before Tuesday’s primary.

Campaign season has been less busy than usual

The higher-profile candidates have not spent as much time shaking hands and answering questions as candidates of previous cycles, Kashinsky said. She described the mood as “muted.”

“Several of the candidates, of the remaining candidates, aren't even in the state today,” Kashinsky said. “Ron DeSantis has left. Trump is not here. Nikki Haley has had a relatively light campaign schedule so far that is picking up a little bit today. And then you have the two longshot Democrats [Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips] who are campaigning here while Joe Biden isn't.”

Still, voters are excited to head to the polls.

“In New Hampshire, of course, this is effectively a birthright to get to vet and pick the next presidential nominees,” she said. “So voters are turning out, hundreds of people showing up to town halls and events and meet and greets for all the different candidates. Plenty of still-undecided voters, definitely leaning one way, but still open to being swayed even in this late stage.”

Polls on the Republican race are leaning toward Trump

In a Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll, 50% of voters surveyed said they would vote for the former president, with 36% supporting Haley and about 5% supporting DeSantis.

“DeSantis put all his chips in Iowa and isn't a good match to the electorate,” O’Brien said. “So I actually think it is, in New Hampshire, a two-person race.”

But polling doesn’t always align with what candidates end up doing, O’Brien said.

“Rationality and politicians, you know, don't always go hand-in-hand,” she said. “I think with Ron DeSantis, he's done. Whether he knows it or not, is a different thing. And New Hampshire is going to send that message.”

Haley, the former South Carolina governor, may be in a different position, O’Brien said. After New Hampshire, she heads back to her home state for the next primary vote on February 24. And some New Hampshire voters may be more likely to choose her, especially with candidates like former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie dropping out.

“The theory of her campaign is that they win in New Hampshire, or do very, very close to Donald Trump, and then go to her home state,” O’Brien said. “Nikki Haley's right when she says she's a better general election candidate, she has less baggage from the perspective of trying to win over those voters, the mushy middle, if you will, that determine elections in swing states.”

New voters and independents will have major sway

According to research by the Carsey School of Public Policy at the University of New Hampshire, 22% of New Hampshire voters have never voted in that state before.

“That's where New Hampshire is very interesting,” O’Brien said. “It's an open primary, so independents can vote. And there's a lot of in-migration to New Hampshire along the Massachusetts border.”

When the general election rolls around, both major parties’ candidates will likely be depending on independents and swing voters to turn out for them.

“Of course, New Hampshire is a very white electorate and unrepresentative in that facet,” O’Brien said. “But the fact that swing voters, individuals who have voted for Democrats and Republicans, individuals who maybe sometimes stay home, that they can have influence on the New Hampshire electorate.”

New Hampshire Democrats are pushing for a write-in Biden campaign

Biden is not on the New Hampshire ballot because of a spat between the Democratic National Committee — which moved their first primary to South Carolina — and New Hampshire, where state officials say they have a right enshrined in the state’s constitution to hold the first primary in the nation.

“New Hampshire takes very seriously their role,” O’Brien said. “It's sort of a dream from a political scientist perspective, that so many citizens are really engaged or going to town halls when it's freezing.”

But Biden hasn’t campaigned in the state, and whether that has an impact remains to be seen. New Hampshire voters, O’Brien said, “like to be courted.”

Other candidates, including Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips, are campaigning in the state. Democrats are urging New Hampshire voters to write in Biden’s name on their ballots.

“Everyone on all sides in the Democrats, the write-in Biden folks as well as Dean Phillips, have been downgrading expectations,” Kashinsky said. “Every time you talk to them, it's a little bit lower of where they think it will be. They obviously just need to get the largest share of votes to claim some sort of victory, the write-in folks do. But it's really hard to tell right now.”