4 things to watch for as Massachusetts votes

As voters across the country head to the polls for midterm elections on Tuesday, Massachusetts voters will pick their next governor and decide on races for other top state officials. They’ll also chart a course on high-profile tax and immigration policies, weigh in on differing criminal justice philosophies and elect the next class of state lawmakers. Here are four things to watch as results roll in.

1. Democrats appear poised to sweep the statewide offices.

After eight years with a Republican governor and lieutenant governor, polling shows Democrats on track to claim all six statewide offices, adding to their supermajority control of the state Legislature. A Democratic sweep would mean women would hold all but one constitutional office in Massachusetts, with Attorney General Maura Healey topping a ticket that also features Salem Mayor Kim Driscoll for lieutenant governor, Andrea Campbell for attorney general, state Sen. Diana DiZoglio for auditor and incumbents Treasurer Deb Goldberg and Secretary of State Bill Galvin.

Republican Geoff Diehl and his supporters have doubted polls that show him trailing Healey in the governor's race. More conservative than popular outgoing Gov. Charlie Baker and more closely aligned with former President Donald Trump, Diehl presents a different path for Massachusetts voters comfortable with picking a relatively centrist Republican for the corner office as a check on the Democrat-controlled Legislature. Even if he loses, Diehl might find a victory of sorts in beating Trump's share of the vote in Massachusetts (32% in 2020, and just north of that in 2016). That kind of showing would let him make the case that his messages — or at least an alternative to the state's Democratic establishment — appeal beyond just Trump voters.

An interesting contrast will be how the auditor's race plays out. Republican candidate Anthony Amore is the only statewide candidate Baker has endorsed this year, and he also has the backing of two other former governors of that more moderate mold, Bill Weld and Jane Swift. The auditor contest has been closest in the polls, though DiZoglio maintains a double-digit lead. How Diehl and Amore each fare could signal what kind of Republican candidates voters here are looking for.

2. Decisions loom on tax policy and driver's license eligibility.

The idea of generating new education and transportation funding through an extra tax on income over $1 million has been talked about for years on Beacon Hill, and it's finally time for voters to weigh in. Despite an active opposition campaign highlighting impacts on "one-time millionaires" — people who won't earn enough to pay the new tax each year, but will be pushed over the threshold by a unique event like sale of a home or business — the "yes" side on Question 1, buoyed by union money, has been leading in polls. Pollsters also have “yes” leading on Question 2, to impose new regulations on dental insurers' spending.

Question 3, which would change retail liquor-licensing rules, "is the only ballot question of the four with a good chance of failing," according to the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion. Question 4 asks voters whether to keep or repeal a recent state law that will allow unauthorized immigrants to apply for driver's licenses. UMass Lowell's pre-election poll had 53% in favor of preserving the law. If undecided voters break toward the "no" side and repeal it, that’s a win for the state Republican party, which has been a driving force in the campaign. But one potential catch is the actions of another Republican: UML pollster John Cluverius said Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' relocation of migrants to Martha's Vineyard made Massachusetts voters more sympathetic to people who come here seeking opportunity.

3. Criminal justice policy is on the ballot.

If voters pick Andrea Campbell, the Democratic attorney general candidate, over Republican Jay McMahon, they'll be choosing a top prosecutor who favors reforms to policing and criminal justice over one who's described himself as a "law enforcement guy." Some down-ballot races could test how deep that appetite for a progressive approach runs, and whether there's geographic limits to it.

In Bristol County, 25-year incumbent sheriff Thomas Hodgson, a Republican and high-profile Trump ally, faces a challenge from Attleboro Mayor Paul Heroux, a Democrat who says he wants to reform and improve the county's jail and its programs. The state's only Republican district attorney — Plymouth's Timothy Cruz — is also the only sitting DA to draw a general-election opponent. Rahsaan Hall, who in his previous role at the ACLU of Massachusetts was among the advocates involved in the state's 2018 criminal justice reform and 2020 police accountability laws, is arguing it's time for change.

4. Open seats and a few challenges mark legislative races.

Unlike in Washington, D.C., where partisan control of Congress is on the line, Beacon Hill Democrats don't have to worry about losing their grip on the State House. Almost two-thirds of the legislative races feature incumbents running unopposed. That means most of the action is for open seats, where the current officeholder isn't seeking reelection.

The open seats in the state Senate mean at least five of the 40 senators will be new next year. Rep. Shawn Dooley, a Norfolk Republican, is looking to add to that list by toppling progressive Democrat Sen. Becca Rausch of Needham. Baker has given Dooley a hand on the campaign trail. Though redistricting changed its contours, the district is a competitive one — Rausch unseated Republican Richard Ross, and before him, Scott Brown held the seat.

On the House side, Republicans are eyeing the redrawn 14th Essex district as a chance for a possible pickup. With current Rep. Christina Minicucci not running, two North Andover candidates — Democrat Adrianne Ramos and Republican Joe Finn — are vying to represent a district that will also include Groveland, West Newbury and parts of Amesbury and Boxford. Meanwhile, Democrats could bolster their supermajority ranks if their candidates prevail in races for vacant seats last held by Republicans — Sheila Harrington of Groton and Jim Kelcourse of Amesbury.