Boston mayoral candidates Annissa Essaibi George and Michelle Wu are set to face off in their first televised debate Wednesday night, a high-profile opportunity for both women to capture casual voters who are just tuning into the race.
For Essaibi George, it's a chance to dim the rosy media glow Wu has enjoyed since winning more than 30% of the vote in September and nabbing endorsements from several major political figures.
For Wu, it's a test to defend and also expand the coalition that put her ahead of the other candidates in the first leg of the race.
Hours before the debate, a new poll of 500 likely voters released by WBUR and MassINC Polling showed Wu had the support of 57 percent of those polled, against Essaibi George's 25 percent. Undecided voters were 19 percent. The poll had a 4.9 percent margin of error.
John Keller, political analyst for WBZ, will serve as the event moderator. In his view, Essaibi George "definitely has more at stake" given that she lags slightly behind Wu in cash on hand and finished 11 percentage points behind her in the preliminary election.
Those conditions, according to Keller, dictate that Essaibi George's task is twofold.
"By any reasonable measure, it's clear that Michelle has an edge. [Essaibi George] has got to do something to bring her down a peg," Keller said, adding that Essaibi George also has to make a good impression with casual voters.
Erin O'Brien, associate professor of political science at the University of Massachusetts Boston, agreed the stakes seem higher for Essaibi George and said their first head-to-head discussion offers a chance to challenge Wu.
"Michelle Wu has been leading the whole time, which is incredibly impressive, but it's also the case that, but for maybe [former candidate] John Barros in one of the [preliminary] debates, she hasn't really been pushed on some of her policy," O'Brien said.
"If you're Annissa Essaibi George, you want to say 'Michelle Wu, it's great to be woke, but it's important to actually be able to pass policy that makes change,'" O'Brien continued.
For Wu, O'Brien said, the way to guard against Essaibi George's policy critiques is to stick by her platform by saying, "'I made it through a tightly contested [preliminary election] on these policies, I've been leading from the beginning based on these policies and I'm not going to change these policies now that we're in the final stretch.'"
Speaking before the latest poll was released, Jacquetta Van Zandt, host of the Politics and Prosecco vidcast, disagreed that the stakes are higher for Essaibi George.
"They both are equally going into these debates knowing that they need the votes of color," Van Zandt said.
If voters of color backed former mayoral candidates City Councilor Andrea Campbell or Acting Mayor Kim Janey in the preliminary, she continued, "then they're trying to figure out what these two candidates left standing are going to bring to the table."
"Being a voter who lives in the Roxbury area, Mass and Cass is not an issue for me," Van Zandt said, "but a plan to have equitable housing in Roxbury is an issue that matters to me. I think what voters want to hear is not about rent control, they want to hear about living wages that create spaces for them to have opportunities to have affordable housing."
Veteran Boston political strategist Joyce Ferriabough Bolling was also reluctant to characterize the debate as having higher risk for either candidate.
"After having worked in this business for about 40 years, anything can happen," she said, pointing to the 2013 election that put former mayor Marty J. Walsh into office — by a narrow margin.
Ferriabough Bolling said many predicted Walsh's opponent, John Connolly, would win.
"Some questions that are really important to me haven't been answered yet," she said, adding that both candidates need to make clear their stances on Boston Public Schools School Committee ballot question and what they would do about the controversial exam schools admission criteria.
"I'm a graduate of Boston Public Schools, my husband was, my son was, so I'm invested," said Ferriabough Bolling, whose late husband was the Boston City Council's first Black president. "Our kids have been under an appointed system, mostly Black and brown kids, and nothing has moved."
Essaibi George has said she supports maintaining a school committee where members are appointed by the mayor. Wu has expressed support for a hybrid school committee.
Ferriabough Bolling added that both women will have to explain their plans — Wu, in particular — in ways that voters can understand, or risk the appearance of speaking in platitudes.
Pointing to the WBZ debate format, Keller said both women will have a chance to shape Wednesday night's discussion.
"There's maximum opportunity for untimed, uninterrupted back-and-forth," as they respond to questions and make rebuttals, he said.
O'Brien said the candidates will cast a different visual image as two women debating one another, but there aren't major gendered implications for how they debate, unlike races where male and female candidates go head to head.
"Research on two women running against each other largely shows that they run the same as men," she said. "That kind of stuff still affects women, but not to the same degree, quite frankly, that it did 10, 15 years ago."
