Most folks on Beacon Hill — whether Democrats, Republicans, bureaucrats, or the mice in the walls — fully expect Attorney General Maura Healey to run for governor next year.
So why hasn't Healey, who is expected to lead the Democratic field if she enters the race, officially declared herself a candidate and started her campaign in earnest?
Because even as an undeclared candidate, Healey appears to be so far ahead of the pack of three already declared Democratic candidates, that there are very few political downsides to waiting, strategizing and preparing to compete for an open seat now that Gov. Charlie Baker is out of the race.
"Maura Healey has the luxury of making this announcement on her terms because she's, as many people have said before me, she's run twice statewide successfully," Democratic political consultant Mary Anne Marsh told GBH News. "She's got a fair amount of money in the bank. She's got the name recognition and all the assets you would want to go into a statewide race."
With the holidays almost here, Healey's only real windows of opportunity to maximize the splash of her announcement would have to come soon or wait until attentions are focused back on politics in 2022. Waiting, experts say, doesn't substantially change her position.
"That might come in the next few days, or it might come sometime in the new year. But I don't think it puts her, given the state of the Democratic field, at any real disadvantage," said UMass Amherst political science professor Tatishe Nteta.
Candidates for office often try to maximize their fundraising by squeezing donors for as much as they legally can the year before an election, then asking for more once the calendar page flips. Healey won't need to explicitly declare herself a candidate for governor to beat out any other Democrats when it comes to fundraising. At the end November, the three prominent Democrats already running for governor reported a cumulative $617,334 in campaign cash-on-hand. Healey reported having over $3,300,000 on hand.
"It's the closest thing to a coronation I've ever seen," said one State House Democrat, a Healey supporter who's waiting for the nation's first openly gay attorney general to make her move.
Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito's decision earlier this month to forgo her own run for the corner office upset the conventional wisdom in Massachusetts politics even more than the same conclusion from her boss Baker. With the governor and his presumed successor out of the race, the chances a Democrat will become the state's next chief executive increased immensely.
Marsh said the time Healey is taking now is best spent considering a race without Baker or Polito, two moderate Republicans who stand a better chance of generating a competitive general election than a Donald Trump–backed conservative like former Whitman Rep. Geoff Diehl.
"The governor's race is very different with Charlie Baker out of it than it was with him in it, and I think everyone spent most of their time preparing for a run with him in it. So you have to take a different look at everything," Marsh said.
Still, some Democrats are growing frustrated by Healey's lack of action and suggest the delayed launch will prevent her from hiring top campaign staff and stifle competition in down-ballot races.
"With compassion and empathy to our attorney general, her failure to make a decision about her plans for the upcoming electoral cycle is a significant detriment to the party, to the other candidates already waiting in the attorney general's potential race, to the other candidates declared in the gubernatorial race and to the future of Massachusetts politics," one elected Democrat told GBH News.
Politico reported last week that Healey has hired Sen. Elizabeth Warren's 2012 campaign manager as a consultant, a move that made it clear to many political watchers that Healey has made up her mind to move forward with a run.
Healey's political adviser told GBH News that she is still considering her options.
