Why GBH News political analysts were 'very surprised' by Baker and Polito's exit

Governor Charlie Baker, along with Lieutenant Governor Karyn Polito, made the announcement to a roomful of reporters yesterday that they will not seek reelection, ending the governor's service at two terms. Peter Kadzis, GBH News senior politics editor, and Adam Reilly, GBH News politics reporter, joined host Sean Corcoran on Morning Edition today to discuss the surprising day in Massachusetts politics. This transcript has been edited lightly for clarity and length.

Sean Corcoran: Peter, Baker made us wait for this announcement, but did it come as a surprise?

Peter Kadzis: It did, Sean. I was surprised. Chalk it up maybe to a lack of imagination, but I was very surprised — and super surprised that Lieutenant Governor Karyn Polito also took herself out of contention.

Corcoran: Adam Reilly, how about you? What was your take?

Adam Reilly: Yeah, I was no more prescient than Peter. I thought the big question, up until the governor's appearance on Boston Public Radio this week, was: “Is he going to run as a Republican or is he going to leave the GOP and run as an independent?” — which polls indicated might actually be his best path to a third term.

So I guess I should have been thinking more about the possibility that political and personal considerations might make him take a pass on that. But as Peter said, to have both him and Polito say, “we're not doing it” was a real surprise.

Corcoran: The governor was driving the point that he plans to work hard on the pandemic — he was kind of putting the politics aside a little bit. He wanted to highlight that as one of the main reasons not to run, saying he didn't want to spend time campaigning when he was asked what he felt like his legacy would be. He answered this way.

Corcoran: Adam, he wouldn't really answer that question. So let's give it to you. What do you think the governor's legacy will be?

Reilly: That's a terrific question. I think I would start by saying that he will be remembered as representing a very different kind of politics when it comes to Republican officeholders than what we see as a rule nationwide these days. He loves the idea, and I think the practice of bipartisan cooperation — [he] genuinely believes that's the best way to make things happen, and actually has shown a knack for doing that. We heard a lot of lip service paid to bipartisanship in D.C., and it basically is an excuse for inaction. I don't think that that is the case here in Massachusetts.

I'd also say, stewarding the state through the COVID pandemic will be one of the things that defines his tenure. There were hiccups along the way — the Holyoke Soldiers' Home, a terrible human toll there. [Also,] problems with vaccination rollouts. But still, we did a lot better than many states. So I guess I'd put those two things at the top of my list.

Corcoran: Peter, let's go back to something Adam raised about what's really behind this. Was it the work, the pandemic? Was it something else? Are we buying that Geoff Diehl had nothing to do with this?

Kadzis: Well, let me go back to the work first. Human beings are complicated, and they rarely take major steps for any single reason. I do believe the work is a major factor. However, I don't dismiss the fact that the local Republican Party has gone completely Trumpian. It's not Diehl — it's what Diehl represents.

And I think that has something to do with why Polito also took a step away. We say, “oh, the Republican Party is in shambles.” I'm not sure it is. The [Massachusetts] Republican Party is now fully Trumpian the way it is around America. And I think, simply put, while Charlie Baker is proud of his affiliation, he is not going to rearrange his personal allegiance to fit today's fashions.

Reilly: I think it's really important to drive home for listeners who don't know this, that despite a lot of coverage saying Baker would have been the favorite if he'd run, Baker would have been the underdog in his own party's primary. Early polling shows him trailing Geoff Diehl, who’s been endorsed by President Trump, by a significant margin.

So there was a real chance if he ran as a Republican again, that he was going to lose his own party's primary, which would have been a really dispiriting way for a guy who spent his life in the GOP, and enjoyed high approval ratings for much of his two terms, to go out.

Kadzis: And if I could just add an historical note, Michael Dukakis was the only governor in recent memory who served three terms. And those were not consecutive. Like the presidency, the Massachusetts governor usually serves at most eight years.

Corcoran: And now we move on to Maura Healey. Next to the governor, she has the biggest political bully pulpit in the state, and she's been using it since 2014. She's well known to the electorate. Adam, is she in a position to win the governor's office?

Reilly: Well, she's certainly in a position to do it. Whether she's finally going to take the plunge or not is, I think, very much an open question, especially with one other name that surfaced yesterday, which you've been talking about this morning, Marty Walsh reportedly thinking about making a run along with 100 other political figures from Massachusetts.

One thing to watch if Healey jumps in — her poll numbers are great. She'd be the favorite for the Democratic nomination if she got in today. But I think there's a very real question about how she'll handle the demands of retail campaigning. You have three other Democrats who've been running for a long time. The A.G. has not had that experience, and if she does jump in, keep an eye on whether her candidacy will live up to the hype.

Kadzis: Let me take the Marty Walsh thing — there's a small cottage industry out there trying to keep Marty Walsh's name in front of the hometown folks here in Massachusetts and Boston. Now if Maura Healey were not to run, if she finally stops playing Hamlet and makes up her mind, then that's a possibility. But let's not get caught up in Marty speculation.

Corcoran: Well, one thing we can assume is that Governor Baker will not be running for president.

Kadzis: Sean, that's why you get the big bucks.