Super Tuesday is the biggest day of the Democratic primary campaign. Fourteen states will hold nominating contests to pick who they think should square off this fall against likely GOP nominee President Trump.
There are 1,357 delegates at stake, about a third of all delegates. So far, fewer than 4% of the delegates have been allocated.
People will head to the polls all across the country, from Virginia to California, Tennessee to Texas. The states and voters are diverse. Almost half have significant black populations, and Latinos figure to be an important factor in the two states with the biggest delegate hauls, California and Texas.
There's a lot on the line, especially for Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Sanders is the front-runner
And then there's Mike Bloomberg. After spending hundreds of millions of dollars, Bloomberg will be on the ballot for the first time. Does he surprise and emerge as an alternative to Sanders, or will he siphon votes from Biden? And what impact might
remaining candidates
Here's what to watch for and what you should know about each of the Super Tuesday states, in order of most pledged delegates. (Note: American Samoa and Democrats living overseas are also voting on Tuesday.)
California
Delegates at stake: 415
Polls close: 11 p.m. ET
This is the most important state of Super Tuesday because of its size. Its 415 delegates is more than the nine Super Tuesday contests with the lowest delegate totals combined.
Latinos are expected to make up
about 30% of the electorate
Sanders is the heavy favorite here, despite
losing to Hillary Clinton in 2016
Biden has spent $0 on California TV ads, and
just $4,000
Bloomberg, in contrast, has spent more than $71 million and is currently
polling below the 15% threshold
Warren is teetering around the delegate threshold percentage, too, with most polls conducted before South Carolina. Does she get above 15%? Does she pull from Sanders? Does Biden gain momentum from South Carolina?
A wild card is black voters. There were no exit polls in 2016; 2008 exit polls showed black voters were
only 7% of the electorate
This will also be the first significant measure of Asian Americans in this election. They were 8% of the electorate in 2008, and the California Democratic Party estimates they are 10% now.
Texas
Delegates at stake: 228
Polls close: 9 p.m. ET (Most polls close at 8 p.m. ET, but El Paso is in the Mountain time zone.)
Everything's bigger in Texas, including the delegate count. OK, it's not as big as California, but it's right up there.
The race is shaping up to be closer than in California.
Polling shows
This state has not always been friendly to Sanders. He
lost it to Clinton
Sanders struggled because Clinton had a fairly strong hold on voters of color, and Texas is expected to be a majority-minority electorate Tuesday. In 2016, it was
57% non-white
Also key to watch is the age of the electorate that comes out. Sanders has had his biggest advantages with younger voters — and Biden with older voters. The numbers to watch: 20%, the percentage of the electorate in 2016 that was under 30; and 18%, the percentage over 65.
Biden's disadvantages here are advertising and early voting. He's only spent about $89,000 here compared to more than $3.7 million for Sanders. Early
voting lasted for 10 days
North Carolina
Delegates at stake: 110
Polls close: 7:30 p.m. ET
Black voters are key.
About a third of the electorate
Sixty-one percent were also 45 and older.
Both groups favor Biden, but the percentages of both are lower in North Carolina
than in South Carolina
That means a narrower race between Biden and Sanders.
Polls show Biden slightly ahead of Sanders
Virginia
Delegates at stake: 99
Polls close: 7 p.m. ET
Virginia, with its 7 p.m. ET poll-closing time, will give an early indication of whether moderate Democrats are coalescing around Biden. This is a place
Clinton won by almost 30 points
Unite the Country, a superPAC supporting Biden, believes Biden is starting to do well not just with black voters but with white women over 40. The Virginia suburbs is the place to prove it.
Clinton won almost
two-thirds of white women
There haven't been many good polls in Virginia. The last best one was a
Monmouth poll from Feb. 18
Massachusetts
Delegates at stake: 91
Polls close: 8 p.m. ET
This is Warren's home state, but Sanders is making a play here in this state where 85% of Democratic voters
in 2016 were white
Minnesota
Delegates at stake: 75
Polls close: 9 p.m. ET
Another home-state advantage here, this time for Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar. Klobuchar has struggled after her surprise
third-place finish in New Hampshire
There hasn't been a lot of polling, but what does exist shows Klobuchar
doesn't have an overwhelming lead
Colorado
Delegates at stake: 67
Polls close: 9 p.m. ET
This is one of the three states where Latinos could make a difference. Colorado
switched from a caucus to a primary
The
very limited polling
Remarkably, Bloomberg has spent almost $10 million on
ads in this state
Tennessee
Delegates: 64
Polls close: 8 p.m. ET
This is the state where Biden has invested most in ads on Super Tuesday (even though it's only $157,000 and is less than half of what Sanders has put in).
There's a reason for that —
roughly a third
Biden is hoping to run up the score here, especially with wealth venture capitalist Tom Steyer out of the way. Steyer, who was competing for black voters, spent $600,000 on ads in Tennessee.
Steyer dropped out
Alabama
Delegates at stake: 52
Polls close: 8 pm. ET
This is the most heavily African American Democratic electorate of Super Tuesday.
More than half
Oklahoma
Delegates at stake: 37
Polls close: 8 p.m. ET
This state has the highest share of white voters without a college degree of any of the Super Tuesday states. They accounted for
more than a third
Biden showed improvement with white voters without a college degree in South Carolina. He has to hope to do better with them and that black voters, who accounted for 14% of the 2016 primary electorate, give him an overwhelming margin.
There has been very sparse polling. The latest, conducted about two weeks ago and before the Las Vegas debate, showed Biden
statistically tied
Warren was below the threshold line; it would be pretty remarkable if she gets no delegates from the state where she was born and raised.
Arkansas
Delegates at stake: 31
Polls close: 8:30 pm ET
Arkansas cuts a
similar profile
There was
one poll
Utah
Delegates at stake: 29
Polls close: 10 p.m. ET
The
Utah Democratic Party estimates
It was Bloomberg's
second in-person trip there
Maine
Delegates at stake: 24
Polls close: 8 p.m. ET
Maine is the whitest state to vote on Super Tuesday —
the state party estimates
Where does Buttigieg's support go now that he's out of the race? It could very well go to Warren, who was competing with him for white voters with college degrees. Biden was slightly below the threshold, making this another state where Biden could get shut out.
Vermont
Delegates at stake: 16
Polls close: 7 p.m. ET
This is Sanders' home state. He's the
overwhelming favorite
NPR news assistant Elena Moore contributed to this report.
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