Political scientist Ian Bremmer, president and founder of the Eurasia Group, discussed how the United States' role in global affairs has shifted in recent years, and where the country stands on internationally under the Trump administration. Bremmer spoke with WGBH News’ Jared Bowen at the WGBH studio at the Boston Public Library on Wednesday.
Here are some key takeaways from the interview:
Trump's Relationships With Allies
The rest of the world no longer gets their marching orders from the U.S., Bremmer said, though that isn't necessarily a new development from President Donald Trump's administration.
"The global order is changing. ... The United States used to be the sole superpower, after the Soviet Union collapsed, for 25 years," Bremmer said. "Today, there's another economic superpower. There's another technological superpower out there: It's China."
Bremmer said that "there is no question that Trump's relations" with some — but not all — of America's allies are rockier than relations have been under previous administrations. But, he said, Trump is not solely to blame for the United States' increasingly diminished role in international affairs.
"These problems pre-date Trump," he said.
Rather, Bremmer blamed the country's lack of a plan after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 as the turning point in America's global dominance. Without a plan to rebuild, like there had been after the end of World War II, there was no way to guarantee the U.S. would come out on top, he said.
"There was no Marshall Plan. I would say that was the beginning. If you want to really say, 'Where were the seeds of the end of U.S. hegemony and dominance in the global order?,' it was the absence of a U.S. strategy to respond to Soviet collapse once we beat our former enemies," he said.
How China, Russia Are Threats To The U.S.
The country that's the biggest threat to the U.S. in the short-term? Russia, Bremmer said.
"They're risk-acceptant and they're willing to do things that hurt us inside our country," Bremmer said. "We saw that with our elections, we see that with their fake news, we see that with their playing around with Black Lives Matter and just trying to create more dissent and disruptiveness. Their cyber-attacks, as well."
The biggest long-term threat? "Not even close. It's China," he said.
"The Chinese are building an alternative to a U.S. system. And they're spending money outside their borders, and we're not. I mean, we talk about a Green New Deal in the U.S., but what we really need is a Green Marshall Plan. What we really need is to look outside our borders, because that's where climate is really being destroyed. That's where the fight is happening. We are not in decline as the United States. But our influence globally is in decline, and the Chinese are a principal reason for that. But we don't have a strategy to respond to it. The Chinese have a strategy."
The Mueller Investigation Stains Our Global Reputation
No matter the what impact Special Counsel Robert Mueller's report has on Trump's presidency, the fact that the investigation is happening at all is a bad look for the U.S., internationally, Bremmer said.
He added that the Mueller investigation, on top of a slew of other issues "the U.S. is fighting over right now" — historic levels of economical inequality, the college admissions scandal, and political division — is just another stain on the America's international reputation.
"All of those things are embarrassing for the American political system internationally," he said. "As this [investigation] all plays out on cable news ... stations that others are watching in the world, it makes us weaker. Because we no longer look like the country with the Statute of Liberty in the New York harbor. We no longer look like the political system that other countries want to emulate."
The results of the investigation likely won't get Trump impeached, Bremmer said, but it is already weakening our international authority.
The Right Idea With Venezuela
Bremmer said Juan Guaidó, who Trump has recognized as the interim president of Venezuela over Nicolas Maduro, is "a very courageous figure who is facing arrests, or death just by taking the stance he presently is."
He also pointed out that the United States' current policy toward the political unrest in Venezuela "is supported by almost all of our allies," and he believes that policy makes it more likely for Maduro to be forced out. "If we were to engage in military intervention in Venezuela, almost all of our allies would oppose us," he said. "So you'd lose that mulilateral engagement.
"So few things that Trump does are mulitlateral, that when he finally has one that everyone kind of agrees, you kind of want to go with it, right?" Bremmer said.