ARI SHAPIRO, HOST:

Special elections in two states tomorrow are getting national attention. In Wisconsin, a single state Supreme Court race has cost nearly $100 million. We’re going to focus now on Florida where there are races for two congressional seats in districts that are heavily Republican. Democrats are encouraged by a big fundraising edge in the Florida races and the results that they’ve seen in other recent special elections. NPR’s Greg Allen is covering this from Miami. Hi there.

GREG ALLEN, BYLINE: Hi, Ari.

SHAPIRO: What are the two Florida seats up for grabs, and why are they open now?

ALLEN: Well, you know, both vacancies have to do with President Trump, who’s looked to Florida to fill a bunch of positions in his administration. One of the seats in Florida’s 1st Congressional District is the one that belonged to firebrand Republican Matt Gaetz, who was Trump’s first pick to be attorney general. That nomination fizzled, though, because of Gaetz’s controversial history, one that included separate investigations for sexual misconduct and sex trafficking and drug use allegations. And then after he withdrew his nomination, Gaetz, who denied any wrongdoing, resigned and became a talk show host. The other seat was opened up when Mike Waltz became President Trump’s national security adviser. Waltz, of course, has his own problems now. He’s the official who added a journalist to a private, top-level Signal group chat in a discussion about a planned attack on Houthis in Yemen.

SHAPIRO: Yeah. I said these are heavily Republican districts, and Trump carried Florida by 13 points in November. Do Democrats have a real chance here?

ALLEN: Well, it does - it depends on who you talk to, but yes, I think it’s - I think people agree that it’s definitely a long shot. In both races, the incumbent Republican won by more than 30 points in November. But, you know, a lot has changed since then. The main issue in both of these races is President Trump’s agenda. Democrats see a chance here to whittle down the narrow edge that Republicans have in Congress if they can just pick up one or two of these seats. In the 1st Congressional District in Florida’s panhandle, Democrat Gay Valimont has raised several million dollars more than her opponent, Florida’s chief financial officer, Jimmy Patronis. And something similar is happening in the 6th Congressional District in Central Florida. There, Democrat Josh Weil has raised some $10 million, which is several times more than his opponent, Randy Fine. President Trump has become concerned about the - losing, possibly losing, his slim majority edge in Congress. He took part in a call last week, something they called a tele-town hall, to campaign for Fine.

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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: He was one of 14 Florida state legislatures who endorsed me very early in my campaign for president. That’s why Randy will always have a very open door to the Oval Office. He will be there whenever I need him.

ALLEN: That race is the one that Democrats think they have the best chance of winning. A couple of recent polls show Weil behind by just three or four points, which is within the margin of error.

SHAPIRO: Since Trump won in November, Democrats have been searching for a clear message. Do these special elections give them something to rally around?

ALLEN: Yeah, I think that does seem to be what’s happening here. The big fundraising haul for the Democrats in both races came from donors from across the country who were looking to do something to oppose President Trump and his agenda. The new national chairman of the Democratic Party, Ken Martin, was in Florida over the weekend. And these are important races, he said when he was here. But he said, at the same time, he was realistic about the challenge that Democrats face.

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KEN MARTIN: Obviously, we want to win. Victory for anyone, of course, is winning the election. But I also think, look, if we come up short, the reality is, this is a 30% district, right? And I’m absolutely confident we’re going to overperform expectations in this district.

ALLEN: Democrats had other wins in special elections last month in Pennsylvania’s legislature. That gives them hope that there could be something like a rising blue tide. Republicans, including President Trump, are worried about losing, though, their narrow majority in Congress, and that’s why Trump pulled Congresswoman Elise Stefanik’s nomination for U.N. ambassador last week. Every seat in Congress and every special election to fill is going to be very important in the months ahead.

SHAPIRO: That’s NPR’s Greg Allen in Miami. Thanks, Greg.

ALLEN: Sure, Ari. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.