Overturning Roe v. Wade will have 'huge' political impacts ahead of midterm elections, says political scientist

Massachusetts lawmakers and abortion rights advocates are galvanized in the wake of the news that the U.S. Supreme Court may overturn the landmark 1973 abortion rights decision Roe V. Wade this summer. UMass Boston Political Science Professor Erin O'Brien joined GBH Morning Edition hosts Paris Alston and Jeremy Siegel to discuss the political impacts of the decision on the midterm elections in November. This transcript has been edited for clarity and length.

Siegel: So, Erin, how would you characterize the response among state leaders so far?

Erin O'Brien: Not particularly surprising in Massachusetts — they did have a chance to pass the ROE Act, but Governor Baker vetoed it. But women who are pro-choice and hopefully men who are pro-choice in Massachusetts, not a lot is going to change here. It's in other states where the state legislature isn't dominated by Democrats, and they don't have a socially moderate Republican in the State House.

Alston: And this is just a draft opinion that was leaked out of the court, Erin. A final decision could come this summer. We mentioned that there has been a push for stronger protections here in the Commonwealth. What sort of legislative action here or in other states do you think we could see between now and when a final ruling is released?

O'Brien: A lot of states that lean left or are purple have pushed for trigger laws. On the right there are a lot of trigger laws that if the court were to overturn Roe v. Wade, that abortion would immediately be made illegal. There's no reason states on the left or purple states can't do the same to codify and further protect women's right to choose. And admittedly, this isn't getting as much attention — there's not that many abortion providers. So as Jeremy alluded to, it could become the case that individuals in surrounding states can come to states that are safe that protect the right to choice. There is still a provider problem. So admittedly, that's not getting as much attention, but trying to get individuals in medicine to go into providing.

Siegel: Let's talk a little bit about the political implications of everything that's going on. We have midterm elections coming up this year — some state elections that could be huge for the power balance in Congress — thinking of Pennsylvania and Ohio. How significant do you think abortion now becomes on both sides of the aisle ahead of the midterms?

O'Brien: Huge, to be very analytic about it. But from an agenda-setting perspective, Democrats were going into the midterms worried that inflation and views on Joe Biden were going to bring them down. That still could happen. But from an agenda-setting perspective, abortion is no longer a number nine issue that gets discussed; it's one or two. And that galvanizes voters.

O’Brien: There is going to be so much more money in the amount of donations that are going to come in. Democrats are going to have more money to play with. But they're still looking at an electoral map that has been gerrymandered — that in solidly red states, public opinion is largely behind eliminating Roe. So money is not going to change long-seeded public opinion.

Alston: Let's talk about the voters for a second, Erin, because we have heard from Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren that somewhere around 60 or 70 percent of people support upholding Roe v. Wade. But there's also a recent PBS NewsHour/NPR Marist poll that is showing Joe Biden and Democrats running behind, and roughly half of American adults saying that they would support a Republican candidate in the midterms. So how do we factor in that shift in public opinion?

O'Brien: Well, voters are inconsistent. That's part of it. But it is also the case that the decision hasn't come down. Yes, people are completely paying attention to the Alito draft that was circulated, but I think something does potentially change in June. And while we describe public opinion regularly as, “are you pro-life or pro-choice?” I teach women in politics, I've taught it for years. And it is true that majorities in the United States are pro-choice. It's also true that majorities are fine with waiting periods and other restrictions — so public opinion tends to be a bit more nuanced, and it's a matter of priming.

If you're Democrats, you want to prime it so that when voters go in to cast their ballot or mail the ballot in, they are thinking about abortion when they vote. That is better for Democrats and Republicans. Ironically, in purple states, in swing districts, they might not want this at the top of the agenda because it highlights places where they might be out of touch with the constituency. But overall, Paris, it is an issue. It shows us that legislative outcomes are regularly not mirror images of public opinion.

Siegel: When we think about the elections later this year, here in Massachusetts we're going to have a gubernatorial race. Charlie Baker, a Republican who was talking about the importance of abortion rights protections in the Commonwealth yesterday — he's going to be leaving office. Do you think we could see this issue affecting statewide races here later this year?

O'Brien: Yes. Depending on who gets out of the Republican primary, this is bad news for Geoff Diehl. But Geoff Diehl has lost handily statewide. So if he were to be the Republican that emerged, that doesn't change anything. Attorney General Maura Healey and Massachusetts State Senator Sonia Chang-Díaz are in lockstep on this issue. I think it's Chris Doughty on the Republican side — he is the more moderate, even though he's pushing against that some. This could be an issue that becomes salient to him, a question that gets brought forward to him in Republican circles.

Alston: Erin, how do you think this moment is going to shape politics more broadly in the years to come?

O'Brien: I teach a lot about the historical development of the women's movement. And third-wave feminist organizing has been correctly, rightfully, appropriately and necessarily taking up the cause of intersectionality in a very real and nuanced way. And that has been so important and vital. But one thing that that has meant is there hasn’t been one galvanizing issue for the women's movement. And we know from an organizing perspective, it's easier to organize when there's an issue, or one or two issues. And I think abortion just became that, because many of us, self included, have never lived in a country where Roe v. Wade wasn't the law of the land. So women are feeling threatened on something that was context in their life.