The Impossible Burger has put high-tech meat alternatives on people’s plates and minds. But just how big could this emerging sector become? And how soon?
A new analysis says it could make the cow a thing of the past before the middle of this century.
The report, published by RethinkX in September, concerns the future of agriculture. It says that by 2030, the cattle farming industry will be nearly bankrupt. RethinkX, pronounced “rethink, X,” is a think tank that focuses on tech-driven disruption and its implications for society.
“Essentially, the cost of producing protein is going to come down, fast,” said Catherine Tubb, a senior analyst with RethinkX and co-author of the report.
“So, [lab-produced protein] will be five times cheaper by 2030 — and 10 times by 2035 — than existing methods. And so, ultimately, this means 50 percent fewer cows by 2030. And it won't stop there,” Tubb said.
Instead of farming cattle for meat, vats of customized protein-producing yeast will be the future of food, the report found.
“This is a technology that's been around since 1979,” Tubb said. “It's how we produce insulin now … and other molecules, biologic pharmaceuticals, for example.”
Tubb said the changes are being driven by the falling cost of production. Originally, it cost about $1 million to produce a kilogram of a protein using this technology. Today, it’s $100 per kilogram.
“We anticipate this will fall even further, so that by 2025 it hits cost parity with dairy protein, which is about $10 per kilo. And it's really at this point … it becomes disruptive.”
About 30 percent of milk is sold “business to business” — in other words, as an ingredient in another food product.
“Once you wipe out that 30 percent of demand, then you just wipe out what you need from cows," Tubb said.
“So, for example, you've seen this with the bankruptcy of Dean Foods in the U.S.,” she said. “It’s an industry that's operating on very financially vulnerable margins and it's very economically unsound.”
One of the goals of the report is to warn workers of the huge changes that could be on the horizon, she said.
“People usually underestimate how quickly these changes can happen,” she said. “You want to protect the workers — not protect the jobs, necessarily — but protect the workers. How are you going to protect people … protect whole communities, that rely on these industries that just may not exist in 15 to 20 years?”
