In a defeat for the Trump administration, the Supreme Court leaves the citizenship question blocked for now from 2020 census, in part because of the government's explanation for why it added it in the first place.
The majority said it "cannot ignore the disconnect between the decision made and the explanation given" by the Trump administration.
The complicated decision comes more than a year after Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, who oversees the Census Bureau, overruled the unanimous advice of Census Bureau experts and approved the addition of the question, "
Is this person a citizen of the United States?
The high court's decision could have profound political consequences. The new population counts from the 2020 census will determine for the next 10 years how many seats each state gets in the U.S. House of Representatives and how many Electoral College votes each state gets in presidential elections beginning in 2024. They also help determine how
some $900 billion a year
Census Bureau research has long shown that adding a citizenship question often leads people in households with immigrants — including those who are U.S. citizens — to simply not fill out the census form. That could result in an undercount that is not only substantial but uneven, according to Census Bureau experts, and it hits mainly in urban areas where immigrant groups live, while leaving rural, mainly white areas largely unaffected.
According to the
Census Bureau's own expert estimates
The bureau has also found that responses to the question would produce data less accurate and more expensive than existing government records on citizenship.
Dozens of states, cities and other groups challenged the addition of the citizenship question in court. The challengers maintained that Ross' motivation for adding the question was political. Ross said the Justice Department wanted the citizenship information for enforcement of the Voting Rights Act. Three federal district courts subsequently found that explanation "pretextual" — in other words, a sham.
The high court's decision comes amid a variety of new developments.
On June 12, the
House oversight committee voted to hold Attorney General William Barr and Ross in contempt
In a separate development later that same day, organizations challenging the addition of the citizenship question in New York
asked the Supreme Court to send the census case back to the lower court
Hofeller, who died 10 months ago, was long one of the Republican Party's top strategists on redistricting. Attorneys for the challengers in New York, led by the ACLU, contend that his hard drives contain documents showing that Hofeller "played a significant, previously undisclosed role in orchestrating" the addition of the citizenship question to be able to
redraw political maps to favor Republicans and non-Hispanic white people
"These allegations cut to the heart of this case," attorneys for the New York challengers said in their
Supreme Court filing
They said that the Hofeller documents, which were discovered after the census case was argued before the Supreme Court, show that the administration's rationale for adding the citizenship question was "concocted" to hide a racially and politically discriminatory motive.
The Hofeller files have also spurred U.S. District Judge George Hazel of Maryland to revisit claims in two Maryland-based lawsuits over the question. Plaintiffs in those cases asked him to reconsider claims of discrimination and of a conspiracy among Trump administration officials that the judge had previously decided did not have enough evidence to support.
In an
opinion released earlier this week
"As more puzzle pieces are placed on the mat, a disturbing picture of the decisionmakers' motives takes shape," the judge added.
The Trump administration's attorneys have said Hofeller played "little, if any, role" in pushing for a citizenship question. But in a recent court filing, attorneys for the Maryland plaintiffs say that he was
in touch with a high-ranking Census Bureau official about the question
Finally, earlier this month, the Census Bureau
began conducting a test census
The citizenship question issue is likely to continue to be a political lightning rod as the 2020 presidential race progresses.
In an April tweet, President Trump said that a census without a citizenship question would be "
meaningless
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