In mid-February, Doug Clarner received three phone calls in a single day from Canadian visitors who had previously stayed at the Burke Bike Barn, located right on the Kingdom Trails mountain bike trail network. He and his wife have run the small, “funky” accommodations since 2012.
Clarner says they rely on word of mouth and repeat customers — including from the north — and have cultivated a pretty high occupancy rate during the summer season.
But these calls weren’t to make reservations — they were to cancel them.
“In fact, one of them wasn’t even a cancellation,” Clarner said. “It was just a repeat customer who just wanted to tell me — even though they weren’t booked, they’ve been coming for years — and he just wanted to let me know that, given the political climate, he would not be returning, even though he loves Kingdom Trails, he loves the Bike Barn.”
The calls started days after President Donald Trump announced — and then temporarily paused — 25% tariffs on Canadian imports. A day later Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hit back, saying Canada would implement similar measures. Trudeau also urged Canadians to boycott U.S. goods and travel to the states. The one-month pause on tariffs is set to expire on March 4.
Meanwhile, Trump has stepped up rhetoric labeling Trudeau “governor” of the “Great State of Canada,” as the president calls for the country to become the 51st member of the union.
Clarner says the cancellations have so far cost him about $4,000. And while that’s a hit, he says that’s business. What he is worried about is whether Canadians will return when the dust settles.
“It’s disappointing,” he said. “You know, everyone wants to come. They like our business, they like the vibe of the town, they like the trails, they like Vermont. You know, they like everything, but they’re not coming because they’re putting their foot down. I don’t blame them.”
Experts say it’s too early to know how widespread these kinds of cancellations are and what economic impact they will ultimately have on Vermont, but it is indisputable that Vermont and Canada, especially Quebec, have a strong, close relationship.
“We have phenomenal economic ties,” said Jeffrey Ayres, a professor of political science and international relations specializing in U.S.-Canada relations at St. Michael’s College. “From the Vermont perspective, we have a history of deep family connections between Vermonters and Quebecers in particular. There’s a huge Francophone influence in Vermont.”
Vermont imports $2.6 billion in goods from Canada annually, making it the state’s largest foreign trade partner. Over the last few years the Scott administration has worked to strengthen trade with Quebec. Vermont has a trade office in Montréal, and there are dozens of Canadian-owned businesses in the Green Mountain State.
“It doesn’t seem like a foreign country to us,” said Jeff Lawson, vice president of tourism at the Lake Champlain Chamber. “It’s just our neighbor, and it’s a little bit alarming to see how quickly things can disintegrate, frankly.”
Lawson, who himself travels back and forth between Vermont and his wife’s home in Canada, manages the Hello Burlington tourism initiative. For years, it’s funneled resources into marketing the Queen City to the 3 million people who live in the Montréal metropolitan area.
Lawson said in the past few weeks he has heard from hotels and bike tour groups about Canadians who are cancelling their vacations in northern Vermont. Many are also unsubscribing from email lists.
It comes at a time when many businesses say they’re finally feeling more solid after the pandemic, when border closings and strict rules decimated cross-border travel.
In fact, Lawson says Hello Burlington was planning to target Quebecers specifically “and hopefully see people get maybe back into some of those old pre-pandemic patterns of coming down to Burlington to do a little shopping, maybe stay overnight.”
“The news from Washington sort of scuttled most of those aspirations on our part,” he added.
According to the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing, the latest estimates show, statewide, about 5% of Vermont’s visitors are from Canada, or about 750,000 people annually. The department estimates they contribute $150 million in visitor spending to the state’s economy.
“Visitors from Quebec are significant for us,” said Heather Pelham, commissioner of the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing. “So the overall percentage of visitors may look relatively small compared to all the visitors that come to the state, but the impact is more pronounced in the northern part of the state.”
They have mentioned specifically it is because of the geopolitical situation right now. Heather Pelham, commissioner of the Vermont Department of Tourism and MarketingHeather Pelham, commissioner of the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing
Pelham said the department has heard directly from 15-20 Canadians who reached out to her office — “very respectfully” — to say they were cancelling trips or avoiding Vermont for now.
“They have mentioned specifically it is because of the geopolitical situation right now,” she said.
And there are other headwinds. Amy Spear, executive director of the Vermont Chamber of Commerce, said while Canadian visitation to Vermont has largely rebounded since the pandemic, Canada’s currency is weak against the U.S. dollar. Recently, U.S. Customs and Border Protection cut hours at four border crossings — Canaan, North Troy, West Berkshire and Alburgh — which were previously open 24 hours a day.
Spear said both the political and economic uncertainty are factoring into Canadians’ decisions about travel and spending in the U.S. and any uncertainty is tough for Vermont businesses.
“I think the bottom line is that there’s definitely a lot of concern,” Spear said. “Because when there’s instability that’s really hard to plan for, and at the end of the day, we value our relationship with those in Canada, so seeing any disruption is difficult.”
At Jay Peak Resort, which is about 15 minutes from the North Troy border crossing, 40-50% of visitors are from Canada, said president and general manager Steve Wright.
“They are neighbors, and they’re friends, and they’re coworkers in some cases,” he said.
That close connection is why Wright posted a personal message to the resort’s Facebook page on Feb. 3 acknowledging this is a tough moment.
“I respect the difficulty of reconciling your love of a place with any political motivations keeping you from even this, the most special of places. I wish I had more to offer than just empathy for difficult decisions but, for now, that will have to do,” the post said. “And if your plans do not include Jay this winter, we’ll be here, as we always have been, when this particular tide turns. Enjoy the rest of your winter, and an expectedly long spring, wherever you land.”
In the weeks that followed, the post received more than 800 comments and has been shared more than 250 times. Comments run the gamut, but some are from Canadians saying they plan to stay away for the next four years — despite, in many cases, how much they’ve enjoyed their time in Vermont.
“Dear Jay, thank you for your kind message towards Canadians and many years of ski memories,” wrote Simon Vinet. “Unfortunately, the bully-ish actions of your government have altered my travel plans for this winter, and most probably, for years to come.”
Wright said it’s been a strong winter on the mountain, which he thinks will insulate the resort from some of the losses, but he worries if Trump moves forward with tariffs it will only further sour the relationship between Canada and Vermont.
“It will certainly impact Canadians and the sentiment that they felt initially with this,” he said.
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