The winter storm passing through Boston on Tuesday turned out weaker than expected. Why?
Meteorologist Dave Epstein said during the weekend, most models showed the storm system on track to bring heavy snow to the area, but yesterday, those models shifted to indicate the storm was not going to make it as far north as originally expected.
“All us in this [meteorologist] community look at models in order to determine what's going to happen,” Epstein told GBH's Morning Edition. “And, you know, people love to say 'Well, what did they do before models?' Well, the forecasts were much more inaccurate back then.”
In this case, enough data showed a high likelihood of heavy snowfall. There was an outlier though, with the European model forecasting the storm would stay south. Epstein said it is unusual that the models were so different immediately before a storm.
“If you go with just one model — even the one that's usually accurate — you're doing it at your own peril, because sometimes it's not always accurate. And if I had said 'We're not going to see anything today' and then we ended up with 4, 5, 6 inches of snow ... it was kind of a no-win situation,” he said.
Still, there is a snowstorm.
“It's just not a snowstorm for Boston, and even Boston could see up to a couple of inches of snow,” Epstein said.
The storm has left more than a foot of snow in Pennsylvania and New Jersey on its path to the northeast. Connecticut could end up with 8 to 12 inches of snowfall in some areas. Around Southeastern Massachusetts, the Cape and the Islands and south of Boston, accumulation will range from 2 to 7 inches, Epstein said.
Taunton was one city expecting to get hit hard, with 5 to 8 inches of snow. Late Tuesday morning, Mayor Shaunna O'Connell said snow was coming down along with strong winds, but that the city was working to keep all streets cleared.
“We're giving the same safety advisories as yesterday,” O’Connell said. “I think it's not quite as much as people expected, but we still have a ways to go. And this weather forecast has changed quite a bit. So it's still a good day for people to hang out in the house, stay off the streets, let our crews make sure that the streets are all clean.”
In Worcester, snowfall is even less. Mayor Joseph Petty said the city expects 1 to 3 inches of snow. Roads have been treated since the early morning and plows have been out to clear the roads.
“It's coming down pretty quick,” he said on Tuesday morning. “But the roads seem to be alright. So, not as big as we expected.”
Petty still advised people to stay home to allow for the roads to be treated — and to watch out for icy conditions.
Residents should make sure to clean up whatever slush or snow lands in their driveways and sidewalks, as it could freeze overnight.
“I think one thing people need to be aware of is how much the temperature is going to drop, later this evening, which will make conditions dangerous,” O’Connell said. “So we'll still have our people out sanding the roads and things like that.”
