Jeremy Siegel: You're listening to GBH's Morning Edition. A winter storm watch is officially in effect with the first significant snowfall of the year expected this weekend.
Paris Alston: Meteorologist Dave Epstein is here with the latest and to tell us what to expect. Hey there, Dave. How's it going?
Dave Epstein: It's going well. Just perusing some model data.
Alston: Oh, tell us what you're seeing.
Epstein: Well, I think one of the things I'm looking at are temperatures during the day on Sunday with the storm. It's going to be just at or a little above freezing when you get up in the morning in Boston point south, I think even out probably to Metro West, right around freezing. And then the colder air starts to come in during the day. So we've seen this many times with these storm systems. There'll be what we call a coastal front. That's the divide between the marine air on the right side or the eastern side of the front, and the colder Canadian air on the western side. And right where you get that boundary is often where you get some of the heaviest snow. So that boundary right through southern New England. And it will turn colder. So Boston, probably about 34 around sunrise. By the time we get to say 1 or 2 p.m., it's down to like 26, 27 degrees.
Siegel: And this snowstorm or rainstorm or slush storm, whatever it ends up being, is set to begin late Saturday night into Sunday. I mean, could it end up just being a smorgasbord of rain, snow and slush? Like, do we have any idea what it'll actually look like?
Epstein: Well, we do have an idea what it will actually look like, I hope. Here we go. It's Friday. And yeah, so, Jeremy, I think that, you know, if you're down on the Cape and the islands, it's going to be mostly a rainstorm for those folks. I think from about Plymouth south, that's where the accumulations will be low, if any. And parts of Cape Cod may only see a little coating of snow right at the end. As you get north of there, and that would include greater Boston points west, we are going to see snow. And I think generally right along the coastline, Boston may end up with three, four or five, six inches. Whereas as you get west towards 128, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, maybe a few places honing in on a foot of snow here where it's lighter and fluffier because it's able to accumulate a little more. So it's not, you know, a crippling snowstorm. It's a significant snowstorm. I do think that Boston itself will be right on — you know, Logan Airport can sometimes be on the edge, whereas you can go to West Roxbury and they have two or three or four inches more than they did down at Logan.
Alston: So, Dave, with the lower accumulation on the coast, sounds like the risk for coastal flooding is pretty low. But is there anything else that we should be on the lookout for in terms of what the storm could bring?
Epstein: Well, with the heavy, wet snow, it's not going to surprise me if we see some scattered power outages, especially south of Boston, where the snow is heavier and wetter and accumulates pretty quickly here during the day on Sunday. Also, in terms of when it starts, I do think that the North Shore, maybe even to the Boston area, will see some snow shower activity during Saturday afternoon. We call that ocean effect snow. The predicted radar that I'm looking at definitely is indicative of that snow coming in off the ocean during the afternoon and then changing over to the heavier, wetter stuff as we head through the overnight hours. So it's snowing pretty good rates here during the overnight Saturday night into Sunday. I do think that, at times, coming down up to an inch an hour in terms of snowfall and it could be a little bit heavier, you know, in those wee hours of the morning, some indication that some areas over inland areas could see an inch to two inches an hour for a short amount of time here overnight Saturday into early Sunday.
Siegel: So this is on a Sunday morning. Obviously, school is not in session. Most people will not be headed into work that day, but a lot of people are doing things on Sunday. How much of a problem is this going to cause for people headed out on the roads or walking somewhere around their home on Sunday morning?
Epstein: Yeah, there's a Patriots game as well. So folks traveling down to Foxborough are definitely going to have a slower time. I would allow yourself lots and lots of extra time. The roads will be snow covered and slushy, especially from Boston west-north. As you get south of Plymouth, we talked about that line roughly from just south of Providence to about Plymouth, everything south of there, more wet roads, perhaps some slush. But in interior areas, just typical January snowstorm stuff. But as you mentioned, it's a Sunday. So that's the good news. Most people are not working, school's certainly out. And I do think that because most of the snow will be down by 1 or 2 or 3 o'clock in the afternoon on Sunday, plenty of time to clean up. I think the kids should be doing their homework this weekend.
Alston: A warning from Uncle Dave here. And so, Dave, it looks like we do have some sunshine in the forecast on Monday. So I imagine with all the accumulation you're talking about, we will have some snow piled up for a while there. But do we need to worry about anything like black ice on some of the back roads or any sort of thing like that?
Epstein: Yeah, I mean, I think typically Monday morning we'll see what we see after a snowstorm. The roads will be clear. It will have been cold Sunday night. So, you know, there'll be some residual slush. One of my concerns for next week is actually Tuesday night and into Wednesday, we have another storm system coming in. This one's going to be a lot warmer. It may start is a little bit of snow, but we have a quite a bit of rain coming in on top of the fact we're going to have the snow on the ground, whatever falls, that's all going to wash away unless you get over eight inches of snow. I think most folks will see bare ground again by Wednesday afternoon or certainly by Thursday. And all that's going to melt combined with the rain. We're going to have some flooding issues here Tuesday night into Wednesday. So another thing to be thinking about this weekend is check your sump pumps and things like that.
Siegel: All right. Lots to look forward to in the forecast. That is meteorologist Dave Epstein. And you're listening to GBH News.
As Boston prepares for its first big winter storm of the season, temperatures were struggling toward 30 degrees Friday, in spite of brilliant sunshine. This cold air will be in place to provide the first significant snow of the season over the weekend.
The challenge to the forecast is going to be how much marine air comes in from the ocean during the first part of the storm. I'm confident that snow will be falling overnight Saturday, and into the first part of Sunday will be heavier and wetter. The rain-snow line placement will be critical to determine who receives the most amount of snow. Obviously, where it's raining the whole time, snow is not an issue; but where the transition occurs, amounts can ramp up very quickly.
MassDOT has advised the public to plan ahead if traveling this weekend, as snowfall will make driving challenging and lead to poor visibility. Construction on the MBTA's Green Line extension has been cancelled Sunday, meaning regular service will operate between North Station and Medford/Tufts. MBTA officials say regular weekend bus service will operate on Sunday, but if the forecast changes, some bus routes may operate on their snow routes.
"We did have a few spots of it last year, but bigger storm like this — it's been it's been a little bit of time," MassDOT Highway Administrator Jonathan Gulliver said at a press conference Friday. "So people aren't used to driving in this kind of weather. And we're asking them just really, really be careful. More so than usual, even."
Notice on my snow map below: I've highlighted a rough area of least confidence. This is because the rain-snow line will be fluctuating in this zone. The storm is just under two days away, and we'll get additional data Friday afternoon and Saturday morning, which will help refine the maps further. Suffice to say that Sunday looks like an unsettled morning with some improvement taking place in the afternoon.
Low pressure will traverse south of New England and then out to sea Sunday night. On this track, a rain-snow line will be present, eventually slipping south and east so that even portions of Cape Cod and the islands should see a few snow showers at the end of the system.
The heaviest snow will occur in the early morning hours of Sunday up through late morning. In the afternoon the snow will taper, but likely last in the air for much of the day. This second half of the storm will be giving us lighter, fluffier snow, which is able to pile up a little more.
The wind will be noticeable during Sunday — especially in the morning, blowing the snow and helping it to stick to the trees and wires. Where the snow is heaviest and wettest, there could be some scattered power outages. I suspect that as we get into the afternoon and it turns colder, the outages will decrease.
Because of all this, the National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch. Some of these areas will convert over to warnings where it looks like six inches or more is likely; other areas will end up with a winter weather advisory where under six inches of snow are going to fall.
While we have this storm to contend with, there's another one on its heels for Tuesday night and Wednesday. This one looks significantly warmer, with another 1 to 2 inches of precipitation. This will exacerbate snowmelt and could cause some flooding. We'll have to take a look at this next week, but if you're susceptible to that type of flooding, it's a good idea to make sure your sump pumps are in working order this weekend.
In a press conference on Friday, Boston Mayor Michelle Wu said that based on the current forecast, she doesn't anticipate major problems with Monday morning's commute or any school delays or cancellations.
GBH News' Bob Seay and Matt Baskin contributed to this report.
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