People scrolling forward on their phone’s weather app will see some warm weather in the cards for late next week, with some apps showing temperatures in the 80s.
But don't get too excited. While the general trends tend to be accurate, the exact numbers depend on which mathematical model is being used, as well as other factors, GBH meteorologist and horticulturalist Dave Epstein told Morning Edition co-hosts Paris Alston and Jeremy Siegel on Thursday.
“It's not impossible that something like that would happen. But when you see those numbers on your cellphone and stuff, it's literally the GFS [Global Forecast System] model at its word,” he said. “It's going to be really warm, more than likely, next Friday. If your phone was using the Canadian model would say 83 instead of 86. So it does look like it's going to be warm. But does it get that warm?”
Other factors, like winds, can also come into play, he said. For instance: Inland areas of Essex County were expected to hit 70 degrees on Thursday, but people going to the beach may be disappointed by sea breezes bringing in cooler temperatures.
“Boston will not hit 70. It's an inland thing,” he said.
Still, warm and dry days are on their way, Epstein said. Expect highs in the 50s and 60s this weekend and early next week, rising into the 70s and 80s Thursday and Friday.
“We're going to go into a pretty dry spell here,” he said. “You’re going to see fire danger warnings starting to crop up because of this. And it also slows the green up a little bit.”
Plants need some rain to sprout new leaves and return to life, Epstein said, and a dry spell will slow that process.
“After today, we're not going to see a drop of rain for probably seven to ten days. That's a long time in the middle of April when things are trying to kind of get going to not see any rainfall,” he said.
But it’s not a drought — at least not yet.
“I don't use the D-word because it's way too early for that, because you do have dry spells for springs,” he said. “We'd have to have week after week after week of less-than-average rainfall.”
Gardeners likely won’t have to change much because of drier days, Epstein said.
“If you put like a pot of pansies out, if you're trying to grow grass, if you're putting your peas in the garden, those things are going to need a little help from augmenting some water. But everything else is fine” unless Boston enters a longer dry spell, he said.
Still, Epstein said, he finds highs in the 80s and long dry spells in April concerning, noting that these disruptions in regular weather patterns are the result of the climate changing and Boston’s temperatures trending warmer.
“I don't like to see the pattern unfolding like this in April,” he said. “When I see that, like you might think, 'Oh, that's great.' I literally it makes my anxiety goes through the roof.”
