As Nov. 6 approaches, we're here to take you on a dash through the math of this year's gubernatorial race between Gov. Charlie Baker and his Democratic challenger Jay Gonzalez.
You've probably heard that Massachusetts has a lot of Democrats, but the truth is a little more complicated. While Democrats outnumber Republicans roughly three-to-one in the state, unenrolled voters — residents who register to vote but don't declare a political party — outnumber both of them combined:
What Massachusetts really has is a hefty number of registered Democrats and a whole lot of unenrolled voters who vote for Democratic candidates. Together, those voters handed a commanding win to Hillary Clinton over President Donald Trump in 2016. She handily won Massachusetts with 60% of the vote:
For a state where Trump lost by nearly 30 points — only four states voted bluer than Massachusetts in the 2016 presidential election — we do elect quite a few Republican governors, and some win with big margins. The governor with the biggest share of the vote since 1970 was Republican Gov. Bill Weld in his 1994 re-election run:
Baker's current campaign hints at a few elements of this Massachusetts phenomenon. For one thing, the governor's lead in fundraising is substantial:
Baker is also rich in another way — name recognition. That shows up in Google Trends data as increased search interest. Baker has enjoyed a solid lead throughout the campaign season. The highest possible score is 100, and while Gonzalez reached a high in the 70's in the weeks running up to the election, at no point did he lead Governor Baker.
WGBH News will be offering live election night coverage to bring you the results as they happen here in Massachusetts and across the country. If you'd like to take a deep dive into Election 2018,
start here, and if you're looking for practical info on the issues, check out our
2018 Ballot Questions Guide.
