Third of a five-part series.
In 1958, the futuristic Disney film “Magic Highway” got a surprising number of things right about cars, like predicting that a rear-view mirror would one day be a television picture.
But it also forecast some things we could only wish for, such as radiant heat to keep highway surfaces dry.
It also predicted driverless cars. What once sounded like science fiction is about to become fact.
Lauren Isaac, manager of sustainable transportation for engineering firm WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff, imagines it’s 2030, and driverless cars have been on the roads for over a decade.
“Imagine I’m a mom and I live in the suburbs. I wake up in the morning and get my kids ready for school and then I summon our private, driverless vehicle to pick us up," Isaac said. “In the vehicle there is a big screen TV, maybe an elliptical trainer, coffee maker and just everything I could need to get my morning started and have a productive trip into work.”
After that, Isaac says, the car goes on various errands throughout the day, and then picks up her and her kids. She says people love the idea.
“When I describe that scenario, quite a few people say 'Well, that sounds amazing. Why wouldn’t I want that?'” she said. "But I actually call it the nightmare scenario because if you have every single person approaching their commute and their day the exact same way, we could potentially have mass congestion.”
One of the biggest differences between now and how the future will play out is parking, says Isaac.
“Ninety-five percent of the time vehicles are sitting idle, so imagine them sitting in parking lots, whether at your home or your office,” she said.
Isaac says in a completely driverless world, cars would have no reason to park, at least during the day, because once they take you wherever you’re going, they’ll get someone else, and do it again.
That changes our concept of ownership, because who would want to buy a car for a daily commute and have it chauffeuring other people around for free?
Architect Gerry Tierney of Perkins Will suggests a different model of ownership.
“You’re going to be buying a subscription to one of the car manufacturers," Tierney said. "GM are talking about it. Mercedes Benz are talking about it. Ford are talking about it."
One thing Ford is doing more than just talking about is a shared lease they’re testing in Austin, Texas, where three to six people can split the cost of a car in what has to be a preparation for the driverless age.
Other signs of a move away from private ownership are deals struck this year between General Motors and Lyft, followed by Uber and Volvo. But if private individuals no longer own the cars, who pays the insurance?
“Those of us who make a living selling insurance are wondering how that’s going to affect us down the road with driverless cars," said Rolf Flaig, who runs a State Farm agency in Duluth, Minn. “Are the manufacturers going to be insuring what they do or are we going to be selling liability policies that stay with the person rather than the vehicle? Nobody really knows how that’s going to play out. It’s a little bit nerve wracking for a guy who still has 10 or 15 years before retirement.”
Car insurance is required by law, so the issue will have to be addressed by state legislatures. They’ll have a host of laws to change, beginning with those requiring a human to be in control of any motor vehicle. This month, Michigan’s state Senate addressed just that, with a vote allowing cars to be operated on public roads without a human aboard. Massachusetts has been slower to act, with several bills stagnating in the legislature over the past two years.
The city of Boston last week said it too will allow testing on city streets, and U.S. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx has just issued federal guidelines for self-driving cars. Needing to catch up is the state, with several bills governing autonomous vehicles stagnating in the Massachusetts Legislature over the past two years.
As for changes beyond government, just look around. My daughter Erin and I took a drive on the Lynnway recently, noting a slew of retail businesses, from muffler and autobody shops and any number of car dealerships that could disappear 20 years from now if all cars are owned by companies like Google or Ford and serviced as a fleet.
Robin Washington is a longtime Boston transportation journalist. He may be reached at robin@robinwashington.com or via Twitter @robinbirk.
