With Election Day on Tuesday, several races and ballot referendums are all under the microscope. Among them-- the race for Massachusetts governor.
Recent polls show a close race between the two leading candidates - Democrat Martha Coakley and Republican Charlie Baker. According to David Paleologos, Director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, Baker is slightly ahead at 46 percent, with Coakley trailing behind at 43 percent.
And while polls may suggest a grim outlook for two of the three Independent hopefuls in the race, Paleologos says Independent candidate Evan Falchuk may get the 3 percent of the state-wide vote he needs to create his United Independent Party.
“He looks like he’s on the cusp of that, which is going to make it difficult for the normal sort of textbook rotation to happen… Voters of third-party candidates tend to rotate away to one of the major candidates if the race is close, but because of the 3 percent rule you might have Falchuk voters staying with him all the way,” Paleologos told WGBH.
According to Paleologos, Falchuk appears to be drawing a disproportionate percentage of Independent votes that would otherwise go to Baker.
This could affect Baker’s chances at winning the race.
“That could be crucial because if Baker only wins by 20 to 25 points among Independents, he will not prevail,” said Paleologos during an interview with WGBH.
Paleologos spoke with local Morning Edition host Bob Seay about several local races and ballot referendums. Listen to the full interview above.
