Before Harvard University’s first-round NCAA tournament victory over the University of New Mexico, cold statistical analysis trumped academic loyalty for Harvard senior John Ezekowitz.
“To be honest, I was pessimistic,” Ezekowitz said. “New Mexico’s one of the biggest teams in the country. We are not that big.”
Ezekowitz, an economics major, is a member of the Harvard College Sports Analytics Collective and writes about basketball and advanced statistics for the group’s blog. He and about 15 other students flew out to Salt Lake City for the game, and he’ll be attending Saturday’s second-round game vs. Arizona, as well.
“People were going crazy,” he said. “I was sitting in a section with a bunch of former players. They were going nuts.”
Ezekowitz thought New Mexico’s size would get Harvard in foul trouble, but the Lobos had trouble defending the Crimson’s three-point shooting. Harvard hit eight threes, shooting 44 percent, and shot 52 percent overall.
“Analytics-wise, this was pretty unexpected,” he said.
Harvard’s coaching staff, led by head coach Tommy Amaker, values advanced stats like defensive shooting percentage and best five-man lineups, Ezekowitz said.
“They do a lot of looking of lineups,” Ezekowitz said. “You can see Kenyatta Smith didn’t play very much over the first 20 or so games, but he’s come on strong and led the Ivy League in blocks.”
Shooting is Harvard’s hallmark, Ezekowitz said, and while he’s not sure they can sustain that pace, he thinks the Crimson match up better against Arizona, whose defense isn’t as strong as New Mexico’s.
“I think they have a better chance of beating Arizona than they did of beating New Mexico,” he said.
Ezekowitz gives Harvard a 30 to 35 percent chance of winning Saturday, but said he’s sentimentally predicting a win.
“The key for us is to rebound defensively and stay out of foul trouble,” he said.
