A Massachusetts landlord organization says the state's emergency eviction moratorium is already creating turbulence in the rental housing market.

Douglas Quattrochi, executive director with the group MassLandlords, said he estimates 20 percent of rent payments have gone uncollected from landlords since the coronavirus shutdown, and that's created a long-term problem of hundreds of millions of dollars in unpaid rent.

Quattrochi said when the moratorium ends, he sees as many as 15,000 eviction notices going out. In a normal year, there are about 30,000 evictions, he added.

“To have a half a year's filings the week the moratorium is lifted is a serious problem," Quattrochi said. "And then that's just based on the housing crisis before the pandemic.”

The eviction moratorium is expected to end August 18th, but that could happen sooner if the state's public health emergency is lifted.

Quattrochi said the college housing market has seen the bottom fall out, mainly because college housing arrangements disintegrated when most college classes went online and students moved back home. As a result, many of the households disbanded.

“We're seeing a lot of increased vacancy in three bedrooms because a lot of times three college students will rent, or in Boston, it can be up to four legally," he said. "And so, a lot of those units are available. And then there's almost no availability whatsoever for studios and one bedrooms.”

According to a survey his group conducted in April, 22 percent of landlords surveyed said they didn't think they would be able to pay all of their bills — including taxes, insurance, repairs and mortgage payments — through the end of the year.

Other research shows that the vacancy rate of rental apartment units is at 5 percent across the state and increasing.

For leases expiring June first, Quatrrochi says some landlords are opting to leave apartments vacant rather than risk a non-paying tenant.

“The advice seems to be a vacant unit is better than a renter who consumes utilities, exacts wear and tear, doesn't pay rent and then cannot be evicted,” he said.

The group hopes to build a coalition with renter advocacy organizations and will petition the legislature to figure out a way to fund the eviction moratorium.