Updated at 11:30 a.m. Nov. 3
In one of the most consequential elections in Brazilian history, voters in Brazil and those living abroad — including a large number in Massachusetts — decided to oust current President Jair Bolsonaro and elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the center-left former president of Brazil convicted of corruption charges after he left office, who has sharply criticized Bolsonaro's authoritarian ways.
After two days of complete silence, the now-outgoing Brazilian president finally responded to the election results. Despite repeated assertions prior to the election that he would suspect fraud if he did not win, Bolsonaro gave a terse, 2-minute speech, signaling that he would follow the Constitution and move forward with a transition of power. But the speech lacked one significant thing: a concession.
That begs the question: Why is he refusing outright to admit defeat? And what does that mean for his loyal followers, many of whom have vowed to take to the streets in protest what they believe — thanks to Bolsonaro's repeated claims on the campaign trail — was a rigged election.
Eduardo Siqueira, professor at UMass Boston and coordinator of the Transnational Brazilian Project, said Bolsonaro's reaction entailed much of what he has already said.
"The speech that he gave was very much saying nothing. He lied again about what he said he did during this administration and used the slogans that he used throughout his campaign — of God, home, land, family, freedom," Siqueira told GBH's Arun Rath on All Things Considered. "He claims that he respects the freedom of opinion, but actually he persecuted the media. He claims he is in favor of freedom of religion, but he accused Lula of trying to restrict the freedom of religion. So the typical stuff that he said in his campaign."
Siqueira said Bolsonaro's message was carefully targeted to his supporters.
"He can't really say fully that he conceded because he probably wants to leave some space open for some protest and to give some some flexibility for his supporters to say, 'See, I didn't say I conceded. I'd lost, but I didn't concede,'" he said. "And that is part of this scheme of always focusing on his supporters, especially the extreme side of his supporters."
Siqueira sees parallels between what is happening now in Brazil and what happened in the United States when former President Donald Trump lost re-election in 2020.
But Taylor Boas, a Boston University associate professor of political science and Latin American studies, doesn't believe that same narrative is playing out in Brazil.
“I think it's important to note some differences here in terms of the immediate aftermath: Trump came out immediately, the night of the election, and claimed victory,” Boas said to GBH's Morning Edition hosts Paris Alston and Jeremy Siegel on Tuesday. “Bolsonaro hasn't done that.”
The same can be said for each candidate’s supporters. While some members of the Republican party immediately “fell behind Trump” in spreading lies about the election’s validity, Boas said, some of Bolsonaro's supporters have called for citizens to recognize the results of the election, acknowledge Lula's victory and move forward.
“I think that is perhaps grounds for some cautious optimism,” Boas said.
Those looking for an indication of what a Lula presidency will look like can go back to the two terms he has already served as the country’s president, from 2003 to 2010.
“During his administration, there were a lot of worries from the right and international investors that this was going to be a radical leftist presidency,” Boas said. “That didn't pan out. It was a center-left government that was fairly conservative with respect to its macroeconomic policies and also prioritized welfare policies to help fight poverty.”
Lula was convicted in 2017 of corruption and money laundering and sentenced to 9 ½ years in prison, though that conviction was later nullified.
“That's the source of a lot of the opposition to Lula today,” Boas said. “But I think that the challenge this time is going to be that Brazil is much more divided. Lula's victory is much more narrow. Bolsonaro's supporters have the largest share of seats in Congress. And so governing is going to be more challenging than it was before.”
This story was updated to condense the discussion with Eduardo Siqueira and add insights from a conversation with Taylor Boas.
