How the ‘blue dot’ of Omaha could decide the race for president

ARI SHAPIRO, HOST:

In the race for president, this year the focus is on the seven swing states. But depending on how they swing, there’s a chance the presidency could all come down to one city far removed from those states. And there, in Omaha, Nebraska, NPR senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith found strong signs of voter enthusiasm - literal signs.

TAMARA KEITH, BYLINE: Jason Brown was brainstorming ways to make a difference this election year. In his garage, he found some inspiration.

JASON BROWN: I saw an old yard sign that a neighbor kid had left in our lawn a couple years back from doing some lawn care, and I had some spray paint.

(SOUNDBITE OF SPRAYPAINT SPRAYING)

KEITH: He free-formed a blue dot on a white background and used a flower pot to clean up the edges.

BROWN: And a couple circles around.

(SOUNDBITE OF SPRAYPAINT SPRAYING)

KEITH: The dot stands for Omaha, a city that often votes Democrat in a decidedly red state. Jason and his wife, Ruth Huebner-Brown, put the sign in their yard, and it immediately went viral. Neighbors wanted one, and then strangers.

RUTH HUEBNER-BROWN: And then from there, people just kept wanting them. So we just kept ordering and ordering...

BROWN: And painting.

HUEBNER-BROWN: ...And painting.

(LAUGHTER)

HUEBNER-BROWN: Ten went to 100 went to 200 to 400. I think our last...

KEITH: Their hands were stained blue. Local hardware stores were running out of the paint. After the first 5,000 signs, the Browns got a professional printer to make thousands more.

This very grassroots effort comes as the Harris campaign is pouring real resources into winning here. Of the swing states, if Harris were to only win Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, she would be one electoral vote short of the presidency. And that’s where Omaha comes in. Unlike other states, Nebraska allocates its electoral votes by congressional district rather than winner-take-all. And that means this little blue dot could make a big difference in this election.

BROWN: How many signs can we get you, or T-shirts or...

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #1: I need signs. I need five.

BROWN: Five - awesome.

KEITH: These blue dots are a Nebraska-nice way for people to show they plan to vote for Harris in a time of partisan polarization and discord. And Republicans took notice. Theresa Thibodeau is co-chair of a group called Red State Nebraska.

THERESA THIBODEAU: When the blue dots appeared, I probably fielded at least 30 or 40 phone calls in a matter of probably an hour and a half.

KEITH: So her group started printing its own signs, a simple red map of Nebraska on a white background.

THIBODEAU: We are not a blue dot. We’re a red state, and that’s the statement that we want to make with that.

KEITH: She says some people come in asking for four or five signs to compete with all the blue dots around them.

THIBODEAU: And a lot of people who maybe aren’t particularly comfortable with having a certain candidate’s sign in their yard, they feel comfortable having a red-state sign.

KEITH: Thibodeau and dozens of volunteers spent part of last week hanging little red plastic bags with Republican campaign literature on thousands of doors.

THIBODEAU: We are in a suburb of Omaha. This is Elkhorn.

KEITH: Oh, OK.

And at a Wednesday night phone bank, Democratic volunteers were reminding people to send in their absentee ballots.

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #2: I’m calling about the 2024 general election. Will you support Kamala Harris for president?

KEITH: The room hummed with action...

(SOUNDBITE OF GONG)

KEITH: ...Interrupted by an occasional ringing of a gong to mark a new volunteer signup. Some polls show Harris with a firm lead here, but her campaign isn’t taking the blue dot for granted. They’ve spent $5 million on advertising so far while Trump has only spent about 200,000, according to AdImpact data. But JD Vance has campaigned here. Tim Walz is coming for a repeat visit this weekend. John Fredrickson is a Democratic state senator who represents a Republican majority district in Omaha.

JOHN FREDRICKSON: I like to call it the purple dot because the reality is that electoral vote has gone to Republican administrations. It’s gone to Democrat administrations. It goes back and forth. It’s truly a swing district.

KEITH: He says that’s why there’s so much political engagement here right now - because people know their vote could decide the next president.

Tamara Keith, NPR News, Omaha, Nebraska. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.