After Biden's debate performance, the presidential race is unchanged

Domenico Montanaro is NPR's senior political editor/correspondent. Based in Washington, D.C., his work appears on air and online delivering analysis of the political climate in Washington and campaigns. He also helps edit political coverage.

July 12, 2024

The race for the presidency remains statistically tied despite President Biden’s dismal debate performance two weeks ago, a new national NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds.

Biden actually gained a point since last month’s survey, which was taken before the debate. In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.

Those numbers, though, do not represent statistically significant differences, as the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be 3 points higher or lower.

The poll also found that, at this point, no other mainstream Democrat who has been mentioned as a replacement for the president on the ticket does better than Biden.

The results reflect the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both of the major parties’ presumptive nominees bring with them significant disadvantages. Majorities of those surveyed continue to say they have a negative opinion of both men, and neither, they say, should be on the ballot at all.

“This is an unpleasant rematch with two unpopular people,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, “but Biden gets points for honesty and character. As a result, there’s a lot of canceling out.”

Nearly two-thirds of the more than 1,300 respondents said they believe Biden lacks the mental fitness to be president. That includes almost 4 in 10 Democrats.

But the survey also found that by a 2-to-1 margin, 68% to 32%, people said it’s more concerning to have a president who doesn’t tell the truth than one who might be too old to serve.

A majority said Biden has the character to be president (52%), while a majority also said Trump does not (56%).

Still, nearly 6 in 10 believe Trump will win, including a quarter of Democrats, and national polls are far less important than in the most competitive states. A Democratic presidential candidate typically needs a wider margin in national polls for that to translate to an Electoral College victory because of the nature of swing states. They, in general, lean more conservative than the country at large because Democratic votes are concentrated on the coasts.

A race likely to be decided on the margins

Since the debate, on average, polls have shown Biden slipping a couple of points, but pollsters generally say it takes a couple of weeks for public opinion to settle after a major political event — and the changes have been within the margin of error.

Plus, while some Democratic leaders have called for Biden to step aside — and an even larger number are very concerned about his chances — there has also been significant pushback from many rank-and-file voters on the left, who see unbalanced media scrutiny since the debate on Biden’s flaws as compared to Trump’s.

That said, politicians tend to be good political weathervanes, with their own high-quality polling, and several of the Democratic House members who have advocated for Biden to leave the race are from competitive swing districts.

Third parties pull younger voters, Biden doing better with those most likely to vote

When third parties are factored in, Trump and Biden are statistically tied, with Trump at 43% and Biden 42%.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pulled 8%, tied for the lowest support for him since Marist started including him in the survey in April. Professor Cornel West, running as an independent, got 3%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein received 2%.

A significant area of concern for Biden is younger voters. Biden drops 13 points with Gen Z/Millennials when third-party candidates are factored in.

In fact, 1 in 5 Gen Z/Millennials choose a third-party candidate when the option is offered, higher than any other age group. But they are the least-likely age group to say they are definitely going to vote.

Biden is actually being buoyed by high-propensity voters. That’s a change from past election cycles when low-turnout elections were thought to favor Republicans.

Trump and Biden are tied, 45% to 45%, with the voters who say they are definitely voting. But Biden is doing better with older votes and white voters with college degrees than he did in 2020. Traditionally, those are two groups that have had among the highest participation rates of any voting blocs.

Biden’s approval rating overall is 43%, but it jumps to 47% with those who say they are definitely voting.

If not Biden, who else?

This question may be at the heart of why even more Democratic officials have not called for Biden to step aside.

At this point, no other Democrat tested does better and all are statistically tied with Trump, too.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the most likely successor if Biden were to decide against continuing his campaign, also gets 50% compared to 49% for Trump. California Gov. Gavin Newsom mirrors Biden at 50% to 48% over Trump. And Trump and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer are at 49% to 49%.

So there is no clear Democratic alternative, though, as Democrats who have called for Biden to step aside would argue, those candidates could all make the case more coherently for themselves and the party.

Pollsters also expect that Trump will likely get a bounce from the Republican convention, as is the case traditionally in the days and weeks following a convention. That may set off yet another round of Democratic concerns and calls for Biden to step aside in the month until the Democrats’ convention in Chicago in August.

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The survey of 1,309 adults was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday by phone, text and online and in both English and Spanish. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.