John Boehner Has Been Up And Down And Up Again. Where Is He Now?

As John Boehner finally got the votes to put him over the top, and his re-election as Speaker of the House became official, one had to wonder what was going on in his mind.

If Boehner has had a rough two years in trying to keep his fellow Republicans on the same page in their battles with President Obama, he endured a miserable couple of weeks in the lead up to the fiscal cliff agreement. His dealings with Obama went nowhere. His suggested "Plan B" ended in humiliation as he failed to realize the depth of the opposition from his own party. He was forced to relinquish his role in the final negotiations to Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell, then stood by as the measure — which raised taxes on the wealthy but failed to include corresponding spending cuts — came back to the House for a vote. It passed with an overwhelming majority of Republicans voting no, including Majority Leader Eric Cantor and Whip Kevin McCarthy. Boehner voted for it.

For good measure, he was excoriated by some Republicans from New York and New Jersey (including Gov. Chris Christie) for postponing a vote on Hurricane Sandy relief aid. Cognizant of the unrest in his party, he was not about to push for a big spending bill after the fiscal cliff vote, though the resulting outrage forced him to bend.

The final indignity came during Thursday's vote for speaker, where Boehner failed to get the vote of 12 Republicans — more defections than Newt Gingrich ever experienced.

But is Boehner really damaged goods? From Day One of his speakership, he has had to balance getting things done with trying to accommodate the wishes of the Tea Party crowd that put his party in the majority in the first place. Many of these Tea Party folks wear ideological purity as a badge of honor, preferring defeat to compromise, and Boehner has never been accused of being a purist. Sure, he could have led the GOP charge to go over the cliff, but then what? Which party would have gotten the blame? I thought so. And let's not forget that the final fiscal cliff deal makes the Bush tax cuts permanent for those earning under $450,000 a year — a situation Obama said he would never accept and Democrats promised they would fight tooth and nail.

Getting back to the original question: What do you think was going through Boehner's mind Thursday as he took the gavel from Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi to begin a second term as speaker? Was he gratified? Was he looking over his shoulder at conspirators, real or imagined, like Cantor or someone else? And even if he was feeling a bit of relief, it's just a temporary calm; for all the ubiquitous self-congratulating high-fives that followed last week's cliff vote, we're probably going to go through another ringer next month with the fight over raising the debt limit. Sometimes you wonder if the job is really worth it. But it's unfair and incorrect to say that he came out a big loser in the aftermath of it all.

At least he got to tell Harry Reid what he was thinking.

Democratic unity in Massachusetts? It is pretty remarkable that Senate Republicans seem far more supportive of confirming Sen. John Kerry (D) for secretary of state than they do of Chuck Hagel, a Republican ex-senator from Nebraska, for defense. But that's another story.

Right now, the focus is on the special election that will follow once Kerry goes to Foggy Bottom. Rep. Ed Markey (D), the senior member of the Massachusetts delegation — he was first elected in 1976 — says he's running. Markey has long been urged to seek statewide office, but only once, in 1984, did he jump at an opportunity. And his interest in the seat of the retiring Sen. Paul Tsongas (D) didn't last long, as he quickly dropped out. (That was the race Kerry won.) Now he not only wants it, but the Democratic establishment, both in D.C. and home, seems to be in his corner. That doesn't mean that other Democrats, such as Mike Capuano or Stephen Lynch — Markey's House colleagues — won't get in. But Lynch's anti-abortion views may not play well in a primary, and Capuano is already 0-for-1 in Senate bids; he lost the 2009 special primary in the aftermath of Ted Kennedy's death.

By nearly all accounts, Scott Brown will be the Republican nominee. Just two months after he was defeated in his re-election bid by Elizabeth Warren, Brown has said Markey's candidacy makes another run "tempting." The truth is, the GOP doesn't have many other options.

(And here's a question from WBUR reporter Curt Nickisch: If Brown runs, it would be his third Senate campaign within four years. Would that be a record?)

Meanwhile, Gov. Deval Patrick (D) is expected to name a short-term replacement once Kerry leaves, and last week Barney Frank, who just retired after 32 years in the House, said he wants the interim appointment. He says he won't run in the special election.

... And a stunner in Hawaii. Everyone thought Rep. Colleen Hanabusa was a lock to replace the late Dan Inouye in the Senate. Shortly before he died, Inouye made it clear in a letter to Gov. Neil Abercrombie that he wanted Hanabusa to be his successor. But Abercrombie shocked everyone by instead naming his lieutenant governor, Brian Schatz.

There were several reasons why he went with Schatz. One, at 40, he's some two decades younger than Hanabusa, and Abercrombie wanted someone who could stay in the Senate for a long time; losing Inouye and fellow Democratic Sen. Daniel Akaka, who just retired, ended a combined 72 years of seniority for Hawaii. The governor also knew that pulling Hanabusa out of the House would lead to a special election, giving the GOP a shot.

Plus, Schatz had made many friends when he chaired the state Democratic Party, including forging a close bond with Abercrombie.

But there were always questions about the governor's relationship with Inouye, who in fact made it clear that he was no fan of Abercrombie's run in 2010. And this was, after all, Abercrombie's call. Not Inouye's.

Schatz says he will run again in the 2014 special election; the seat will be up once more in 2016, when Inouye's term would have expired. Meanwhile, disappointed Hanabusa supporters are threatening Abercrombie with a challenge in next year's primary.

New Members of Congress. Here's a complete listing of the new members of the 113th Congress, sorted alphabetically by state:

ARIZONA:

ARKANSAS:

CALIFORNIA:

CONNECTICUT:

FLORIDA:

GEORGIA:

HAWAII:

ILLINOIS:

INDIANA:

KENTUCKY:

MAINE:

MARYLAND:

MASSACHUSETTS:

MICHIGAN:

MINNESOTA:

MISSOURI:

MONTANA:

NEBRASKA:

NEVADA:

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

NEW JERSEY:

NEW MEXICO:

NEW YORK:

NORTH CAROLINA:

NORTH DAKOTA:

OHIO:

OKLAHOMA:

PENNSYLVANIA:

SOUTH CAROLINA:

TEXAS:

UTAH:

VIRGINIA:

WASHINGTON:

WISCONSIN:

Political Updates. I post periodic political updates during the week — some serious, some not — on Twitter. You can follow me at @kenrudin. Time to answer some reader e-mails:

Q: I always love your trivia question [on Wednesday's Political Junkie segment] on Talk of the Nation. My favorite part is when you explain why someone's called-in answer is wrong; I never know how you do that. I especially liked your [Dec. 26] question about the last former governor who ran for the House. You said it was Bill Janklow of South Dakota. Were there any others? — Linda Salomon, Springfield, Ill.

A: I can think of two more: John Carlin (D) of Kansas and Dave Treen (R) of Louisiana. Carlin, who served as governor from 1979-86, ran and lost for the House in 1994. Treen, who was a member of Congress before he was elected governor in 1979, tried again for the House in 1999.

Q: How many Democrats in Congress voted to allow the assault-weapons ban to expire in 2004? — Stephen Dennis, Minneapolis, Minn.

A: The ban, which President Clinton signed into law in 1994, expired 10 years later. The only time extending the ban (for another 10 years) made it to a vote came on an amendment attached to the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act on March 2, 2004. The amendment, sponsored by Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), passed by a vote of 52-47, but it died when the act itself failed on final passage. Six Democrats voted against the amendment: Baucus (Mont.), Feingold (Wis.), Landrieu (La.), Miller (Ga.), Nelson (Neb.) and Reid (Nev.).

(For the record, 10 Republicans voted for it: Chafee (R.I.), Collins (Maine), DeWine (Ohio), Fitzgerald (Ill.), Gregg (N.H.), Lugar (Ind.), Smith (Ore.), Snowe (Maine), Voinovich (Ohio) and Warner (Va.).)

All other efforts to extend the ban or make it permanent failed. Senate bills, often sponsored by Feinstein and Frank Lautenberg (D-N.J.), all were sent to the Judiciary Committee, where they died. Similar measures in the House, usually pushed by Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-N.Y.), were also referred to a subcommittee of the Judiciary Committee, where no votes were taken.

Q: Why didn't Gen. Schwarzkopf ever run for president? — Pat Singer, Washington, D.C.

A: Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf, who died Dec. 27 at the age of 78, commanded U.S. forces during the 1991 Persian Gulf War. The result was a victory over Saddam Hussein's Iraqi military that took just 43 days — and only 100 hours after the ground phase of the war had been initiated — and it made Schwarzkopf a national hero, a celebrated military man with favorable comparisons to generals of the past, such as Eisenhower or MacArthur. True, Iraq's military might was never going to be a match for U.S. coalition forces. But still pained by how Vietnam turned out, Americans were looking for a military figure to celebrate, and they found one in Schwarzkopf.

Interviewed by Barbara Walters on ABC's 20/20 program, Schwarzkopf refused to rule out a future run for president, which led to widespread interest and a national draft movement. But he wasn't about to run as a Republican, especially since the GOP incumbent, George H.W. Bush, was also basking in high approval ratings in the wake of the war. And while pundits like Newsweek's Howard Fineman wrote that Schwarzkopf "could probably win the Democratic nomination if he wanted it," an overwhelming majority of Democrats in Congress voted against the war and were not about to seek out "Stormin' Norman" as their candidate. And in the succeeding years, celebration about the quick ending to the war gave way to questions as to why Saddam was allowed to remain in power and his Republican Guard still formidable.

Corrections Department. Some alert readers caught a few errors in recent columns. I wrote about the House race in Louisiana between two GOP incumbents, Charles Boustany and Jeff Landry, saying that the state "lost a seat because of population losses." Sally Smith of Ashburn, Va., correctly points out, "No. It lost a seat because it grew slower than the national average. Michigan was the only state to actually lose population during the 2000s." And I made two mistakes in my obit column regarding Arlen Specter. Tom Harsanyi of Burlington, Mass., reminds me that when he was first elected to the Senate in 1980, Specter succeeded the retiring Dick Schweiker, not Hugh Scott. And Rick Wexler of Philadelphia points out that Specter was defeated for re-election as Philly district attorney in 1973 (by F. Emmett Fitzpatrick) and not in 1969, when he won a second term. Ugh, that was sloppy. In any event, those corrections have been added to the 2012 obit column. You can read that column here.

Political Junkie segment on Talk of the Nation. Each Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, the Political Junkie segment appears on Talk of the Nation (NPR's call-in program), hosted by Neal Conan with me adding color commentary, where you can, sometimes, hear interesting conversation, useless trivia questions and sparkling jokes. Last week's show focused on the fiscal cliff deal and featured three new House members-elect: Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.) and Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-N.M.).

And two weeks ago, with Neal out, the guest host was NPR's Ari Shapiro, where we said goodbye to 2012. You can listen to both segments here:

Come to the LIVE Junkie show! The Political Junkie Road Show is coming to Washington, D.C.! The Road Show, which drew huge crowds in Orlando, Columbus and many other cities — to over four or five positive reviews — is basically a reprise of the Wednesday Talk of the Nation Political Junkie segment, but before a live audience and with tons of extra features! There will be newsmaker interviews, political trivia, ScuttleButton puzzles and, for the first time, FUNNY JOKES. In addition to shenanigans from Neal and me, there will be guest appearances by Nina Totenberg, Ted Koppel, Clarence Page, Ari Shapiro and Don Gonyea! It's being held at Washington's historic 6th & I Synagogue (600 I St. N.W.). This pre-Inauguration special program starts at 7 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 16 (doors open at 6 p.m.). Tickets are $20. Click here for more details.

Podcast. There's also a new episode of our weekly podcast, "It's All Politics," up every Thursday. It's hosted by my partner in crime, Ron Elving, and me. The last two episodes can be heard here:

And Don't Forget ScuttleButton. ScuttleButton, America's favorite waste-of-time button puzzle, can usually be found in this spot every Monday or Tuesday. A randomly selected winner will be announced every Wednesday during the Political Junkie segment on NPR's Talk of the Nation. Sure, there's incredible joy in deciphering the answer, but the winner gets not only a Political Junkie T-shirt but also a 3-1/2-inch Official No-Prize Button! Is this a great country or what??

ON THE CALENDAR:

Jan. 16 — Political Junkie/TOTN Road Show in Washington, D.C. 7 p.m. at the historic 6th & I Synagogue (600 I St. N.W.).

Jan. 20/21 — Private/public inauguration of President Obama.

Feb. 26 — Special election in Illinois' 2nd CD to replace Jesse Jackson Jr., who resigned.

March 19 — Special primary in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District to replace Tim Scott (R), who was appointed to the Senate. (Runoff, if needed, will be April 2; general election is May 7.)

Mailing list. To receive a weekly email alert about the new column and ScuttleButton puzzle, contact me at politicaljunkie@npr.org.

******* Don't Forget: If you are sending in a question to be used in this column, please include your city and state. *********

This day in campaign history: Alfonse D'Amato, the presiding supervisor of the town of Hempstead, on Long Island, announces he will challenge Sen. Jacob Javits in New York's GOP primary in September. The 42-year-old D'Amato, considered strong in Nassau County but unknown statewide, says Javits, who is expected to seek a fifth term, is too liberal for the state's Republicans (Jan. 7, 1980). Javits never faced a primary opponent in his four previous elections. But his advancing age (76) and questions about his health (he has a progressive muscular disease), along with fierce opposition from conservatives, help D'Amato win the primary easily. And D'Amato will go on to take the seat in November as the liberal vote is split between Elizabeth Holtzman, the Democratic candidate, and Javits, who stays in the race as the candidate of the Liberal Party.

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